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Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar

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  • De Miguel, Carlos J.
  • Durán Lima, José Elías
  • Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo

Abstract

The Computable General Equilibrium model, based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, is used to evaluate the impact of separate bilateral free trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United States of America (USA). As the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) is to expire shortly, a number of different scenarios have been analyzed: full liberalization, liberalization excluding sensitive products and non-conclusion of agreements. Signature of the agreements would lead to a widespread increase in trade among the negotiating countries to the detriment of their Andean partners. While the effects on welfare would benefit only the United States and Peru, from the capital accumulation standpoint they are clearly positive for all countries. Research shows that, while these agreements would not be enough on their own to trigger a process of sustained development, an active economic and social policy could usefully tap their potential.
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Suggested Citation

  • De Miguel, Carlos J. & Durán Lima, José Elías & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terrie Walmsley, 1998. "LONG-RUN SIMULATIONS WITH GTAP: Illustrative Results from APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-70, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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    4. Botero García, Jesús, 2005. "Estimación del impacto sobre el empleo de los tratados de libre comercio en Colombia: análisis de equilibrio general computable," Estudios y Perspectivas – Oficina de la CEPAL en Bogotá 8, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Arguello C., Ricardo & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "Market access in the Western Hemisphere: implications for the Andean Community," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia - CIE, July.
    6. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julián Tole Martínez, 2019. "Colombia entre los TLC y la OMC: ¿liberación o administración del comercio internacional?," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1139.
    2. Eric Tremolada Álvarez (editor), 2013. "Repensando la integración y las integraciones," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, edition 1, volume 1, number 85.
    3. Julián Tole Martínez, 2019. "Colombia entre los TLC y la OMC: ¿liberación o administración del comercio internacional?," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1130.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ANALISIS ECONOMICO; BIENESTAR SOCIAL; LIBRE COMERCIO; MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS; NEGOCIACIONES COMERCIALES; TRATADOS; ECONOMETRIC MODELS; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; FREE TRADE; SOCIAL WELFARE; TRADE NEGOTIATIONS; TREATIES;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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