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GTAP-DD: A Model for Analyzing Trade Reforms in the Presence of Duty Drawbacks

  • Ianchovichina, Elena

Duty drawback schemes, which typically involve a combination of duty rebates and exemptions, are a feature of many countries' trade regimes. They are used in highly protected, developing economies as means of providing exporters with imported inputs at world prices, and thus increasing their competitiveness, while maintaining the protection on the rest of the economy. In China duty exemptions have been central to the process of trade reform and have led to a tremendous increase in processed exports utilizing imported materials. Despite the widespread use and importance of duty drawbacks, these "new trade liberalization" instruments have been given relatively little attention in empirical multilateral trade liberalization studies. This paper presents an empirical multi-region trade model GTAP-DD, an extension of GTAP, in which the effects of policy reform are differentiated based on the trade-orientation of the firms. Both GTAP and GTAP-DD are used to analyze the impact of China's WTO accession, which involves liberalization in China from 1997 to post-accession tariffs among a number of other liberalization measures. The analysis shows that failure to account of duty exemptions in the case of China's recent WTO accession will overstate the increase in : (a) China's trade flows by 40 percent, (b) China's welfare by 15 percent, and (c) exports of selected sectors by as much as 90 percent. The magnitude of the bias depends on the level of pre-intervention tariffs and the size of tariff cuts - the larger the initial distortions and tariff reductions, the larger the bias when duty drawbacks are ignored. The bias in GTAP's estimates of China's real GDP, trade flows and welfare changes due to WTO accession increases more three times when China's pre-intervention tariffs are raised from their 1997 levels to the much higher 1995 levels. These results suggest that trade liberalization studies focusing on economies in which protection is high, import concessions play an important role and planned tariff cuts are deep, must treat duty drawbacks explicitly in order to avoid serious errors in their estimates of sectoral, trade flows and welfare changes.

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Paper provided by Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University in its series GTAP Technical Papers with number 1192.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gta:techpp:1192
Note: GTAP Technical Paper No. 21
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  1. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  2. Gruen, Nicholas, 1999. "Towards a More General Approach to Trade Liberalization," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(231), pages 385-96, December.
  3. W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson, 1994. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-64, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  4. Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2004. "Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 3-27.
  5. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2003. "GTAP-DD: A Model for Analyzing Trade Reforms in the Presence of Duty Drawbacks," GTAP Technical Papers 1192, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  6. Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Input tariffs, duty drawbacks, and tariff reforms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 131-147, February.
  7. Ianchovichina, Elena & Martin, Will, 2001. "Trade liberalization in China's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2623, The World Bank.
  8. Hertel, Thomas W. & Terrie Walmsley, 2000. "China's Accession to the WTO: Timing is Everything," GTAP Working Papers 403, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  9. Cadot, Olivier & de Melo, Jaime & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2003. "The protectionist bias of duty drawbacks: evidence from Mercosur," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 161-182, January.
  10. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, April.
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