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China, India, and the future of the world economy : fierce competition or shared growth?

  • Dimaranan, Betina
  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Martin, William J.

Although both China and India are labor-abundant and dependant on manufactures, their export mixes are very different. Only one product-refined petroleum-appears in the top 25 products for both countries, and services exports are roughly twice as important for India as for China, which is much better integrated into global production networks. Even assuming India also begins to integrate into global production chains and expands exports of manufactures, there seems to be opportunity for rapid growth in both countries. Accelerated growth through efficiency improvements in China and India, especially in their high-tech industries, will intensify competition in global markets leading to contraction of the manufacturing sectors in many countries. Improvement in the range and quality of exports from China and India has the potential to create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and to act as a powerful offset to the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. However, without efforts to keep up with China and India, some countries may see further erosion of their export shares and high-tech manufacturing sectors.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4304.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4304
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  1. Peter K. Schott, 2006. "The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports," NBER Working Papers 12173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hiau Looi Kee & Nicita, Alessandro & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2004. "Import demand elasticities and trade distortions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3452, The World Bank.
  3. S. Mahendra Dev, 2008. "India," Chapters, in: Handbook on the South Asian Economies, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  4. Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2004. "Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 3-27.
  5. Ianchovichina, Elena & Kacker, Pooja, 2005. "Growth trends in the developing world : country forecasts and determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3775, The World Bank.
  6. Devashish Mitra & Beyza Ural, 2009. "Indian manufacturing: A slow sector in a rapidly growing economy," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 205-205.
  7. Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2005. "Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts," Working Papers 2005-15, CEPII research center.
  8. Guillaume GAULIER & Francoise LEMOINE & Deniz �NAL-KESENCI, 2004. "CHINA's INTEGRATION IN ASIAN PRODUCTION NETWORKS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS," Discussion papers 04033., Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  9. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2005. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 177-216 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Xuepeng Liu, 2009. "GATT/WTO Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection and Model Specification," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 428-446, 08.
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  12. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
  13. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, April.
  14. repec:oup:qjecon:v:117:y:2002:i:2:p:659-694 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 210-234, February.
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