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Implications of the growth of China and India for the other Asian giant : Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Ivanic, Maros
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ianchovichina, Elena & Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2009. "Implications of the growth of China and India for the other Asian giant : Russia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5075, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5075
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    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/10/13/000158349_20091013154649/Rendered/PDF/WPS5075.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. Roy Weintraub & Evelyn L. Forget, 2007. "Introduction," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 39(5), pages 1-6, Supplemen.
    2. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    3. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2005. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Chapters,in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 177-216 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Will Martin & Elena Ianchovichina & Betina Dimaranan, 2008. "Economic development in emerging Asian markets: implications for Europe," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 303-330, September.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    6. Guillaume GAULIER & Francoise LEMOINE & Deniz ÜNAL-KESENCI, 2004. "CHINA's INTEGRATION IN ASIAN PRODUCTION NETWORKS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS," Discussion papers 04033., Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Betina Dimaranan & Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2009. "How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 551-571, October.
    8. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6632, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2016. "Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 172-194, February.
    2. Yongzheng Yang, 2011. "Global Rebalancing; Implications for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/239, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:bla:devpol:v:35:y:2017:i:6:p:797-821 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Emerging Markets; Markets and Market Access; Trade Policy; Free Trade;

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