IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Energy and emissions : local and global effects of the rise of China and India

Author

Listed:
  • Shalizi, Zmarak

Abstract

Part 1 of the paper reviews recent trends in fossil fuel use and associated externalities. It also argues that the recent run-up in international oil prices reflects growing concerns about supply constraints associated with declining spare capacity in OPEC, refining bottlenecks, and geopolitical uncertainties rather than growing incremental use of oil by China and India. Part 2 compares two business as usual scenarios with a set of alternate scenarios based on policy interventions on the demand for or supply of energy and different assumptions about rigidities in domestic and international energy markets. The results suggest that energy externalities are likely to worsen significantly if there is no shift in China's and India's energy strategies. High energy demand from China and India could constrain some developing countries'growth through higher prices on international energy markets, but for others the"growth retarding"effects of higher energy prices are partially or fully offset by the"growth stimulating"effects of the larger markets in China and India. Given that there are many inefficiencies in the energy system in both China and India, there is an opportunity to reduce energy growth without adversely affecting GDPgrowth. The cost of a decarbonizing energy strategy will be higher for China and India than a fossil fuel-based strategy, but the net present value of delaying the shift will be higher than acting now. The less fossil fuel dependent alternative strategies provide additional dividends in terms of energy security.

Suggested Citation

  • Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "Energy and emissions : local and global effects of the rise of China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4209, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2007/04/13/000016406_20070413153123/Rendered/PDF/wps4209.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Celine Guivarch, 2010. "IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 5-24.
    2. Gang Liu, 2004. "Estimating Energy Demand Elasticities for OECD Countries. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Discussion Papers 373, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    4. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
    5. Sinton, Jonathan E., 2001. "Accuracy and reliability of China's energy statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 373-383.
    6. Antonio Merino & Álvaro Ortiz, 2005. "Explaining the so‐called “price premium” in oil markets," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(2), pages 133-152, June.
    7. Edmonds, Jae & Wise, Marshall & Barns, David W, 1995. "Carbon coalitions : The cost and effectiveness of energy agreements to alter trajectories of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 309-335.
    8. Sinton, Jonathan E. & Fridley, David G., 2000. "What goes up: recent trends in China's energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 671-687, August.
    9. Paul, Shyamal & Bhattacharya, Rabindra Nath, 2004. "CO2 emission from energy use in India: a decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 585-593, March.
    10. Dasgupta, Susmita & Hua Wang & Wheeler, David, 1997. "Surviving success : policy reform and the future of industrial pollution in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1856, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Massetti, 2011. "Carbon tax scenarios for China and India: exploring politically feasible mitigation goals," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 209-227, September.
    2. Lecocq, Franck & Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "How might climate change affect economic growth in developing countries ? a review of the growth literature with a climate lens," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4315, The World Bank.
    3. Ianchovichina, Elena & Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2009. "Implications of the growth of China and India for the other Asian giant : Russia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5075, The World Bank.
    4. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2017. "Driving forces for aggregate energy consumption: A cross-country approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1033-1050.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6632, December.
    2. Steenhof, Paul A., 2006. "Decomposition of electricity demand in China's industrial sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 370-384, May.
    3. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    4. Martina, Esteban & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Escarela-Perez, Rafael & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 936-947, September.
    5. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    6. Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "China's energy consumption: A perspective from Divisia aggregation approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 28-34.
    7. Zhang, Zengkai & Guo, Ju'e & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2014. "The effects of direct trade within China on regional and national CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 161-175.
    8. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Solar Australia," MPRA Paper 71201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
    10. ElFayoumi, Khalid, 2018. "The balance sheet effects of oil market shocks: An industry level analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 112-127.
    11. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Efthymios G. Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2018. "Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 833-856, August.
    13. Andrews-Speed, Philip & Ma, Guo & Shao, Bingjia & Liao, Chenglin, 2005. "Economic responses to the closure of small-scale coal mines in Chongqing, China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-54, March.
    14. Radchenko, Stanislav & Tsurumi, Hiroki, 2006. "Limited information Bayesian analysis of a simultaneous equation with an autocorrelated error term and its application to the U.S. gasoline market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 31-49, July.
    15. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1092-1125, April.
    17. Andrews-Speed, Philip, 2009. "China's ongoing energy efficiency drive: Origins, progress and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1331-1344, April.
    18. Antonio Merino & Rebeca Albacete, 2010. "Econometric modelling for short-term oil price forecasting," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 34(1), pages 25-41, March.
    19. Miroslava Zavadska & Lucía Morales & Joseph Coughlan, 2018. "The Lead–Lag Relationship between Oil Futures and Spot Prices—A Literature Review," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    20. Ma, Ben & Liu, Min, 2022. "Improved statistical consistency: The effect of data revisions on the energy use gap between China and its provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    21. Han, Hongyun & Wu, Shu & Zhang, Zhijian, 2018. "Factors underlying rural household energy transition: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 234-244.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Production and Transportation; Environment and Energy Efficiency; Energy and Environment; Energy Demand; Transport Economics Policy&Planning;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.