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How might climate change affect economic growth in developing countries ? a review of the growth literature with a climate lens

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  • Lecocq, Franck
  • Shalizi, Zmarak

Abstract

This paper reviews the empirical and theoretical literature on economic growth to examine how the four components of the climate change bill, namely mitigation, proactive (ex ante) adaptation, reactive (ex post) adaptation, and ultimate damages of climate change affect growth, especially in developing countries. The authors consider successivelythe Cass-Koopmans growth model and three major strands of the subsequent literature on growth: with multiple sectors, with rigidities, and with increasing returns. The paper finds that although the growth literature rarely addresses climate change per se, some issues discussed in the growth literature are directly relevant for climate change analysis. Notably, destruction of production factors, or decrease in factor productivity may strongly affect long-run equilibrium growth even in one-sector neoclassical growth models; climatic shocks have had large impacts on growth in developing countries because of rigidities; and the introducing increasing returns has a major impact on growth dynamics, in particular through induced technical change, poverty traps, or lock-ins. Among the most important gaps identified in the literature are lack of understanding of the channels by which shocks affect economic growth, lack of understanding of lock-ins, heavy reliance of numerical models assessing climate policies on neoclassical-type growth frameworks, and frequent use of an inappropriate"without climate change"counterfactual.

Suggested Citation

  • Lecocq, Franck & Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "How might climate change affect economic growth in developing countries ? a review of the growth literature with a climate lens," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4315, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4315
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ranganathan, C. & Palanisami, K. & Kakumanu, K. & Baulraj, A., 2011. "Mainstreaming the Adaptations and Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor due to Climate Change," ADBI Working Papers 333, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Elshennawy, Abeer & Robinson, Sherman & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2016. "Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 681-689.
    3. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe, 2012. "The Human Development Index and an endogenous growth model," EcoMod2012 4365, EcoMod.
    4. World Bank, 2008. "Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8030, The World Bank.
    5. Thomas K.J. McDermott & Frank Barry & Richard S.J. Tol, 2014. "Disasters and development: natural disasters, credit constraints, and economic growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 750-773.
    6. Yildirim, K. & Koyuncu, C. & Koyuncu J., 2009. "Does Temperature Affect Labor Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Economic Theory&Research; Climate Change; Achieving Shared Growth; Population Policies;

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