Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis for Egypt
Due to the high concentration of economic activity along the low-lying coastal zone of the Nile delta and its dependence on Nile river streamflow, Egypt's economy is highly exposed to adverse climate change. Adaptation planning requires a forward-looking assessment of climate change impacts on economic performance at economy-wide and sectoral level and a cost-benefit assessment of conceivable adaptation investments. This study develops a multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model with forward-looking agents, population growth and technical progress to analyse the long-run growth prospects of Egypt in a changing climate. Based on a review of existing estimates of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, labor productivity and the potential losses due to sea-level rise for the country, the model is used to simulate the effects of climate change on aggregate consumption, investment and welfare up to 2050. Available cost estimates for adaptation investments are employed to explore adaptation strategies. On the methodological side, the present study overcomes the limitations of existing recursive-dynamic computable general models for climate change impact analysis by incorporating forward-looking expectations. Moreover, it extends the existing family of discrete-time intertemporal computable general equilibrium models to which our model belongs by incorporating population growth and technical progress. On the empirical side, the model is calibrated to a social accounting matrix that reflects the observed current structure of the Egyptian economy, and the climate change impact and adaptation scenarios are informed by a close review of existing quantitative estimates for the size order of impacts and the costs of adaptation measures. The simulation analysis suggests that in the absence of policy-led adaptation investments, real GDP towards the middle of the century will be nearly 10 percent lower than in a hypothetical baseline without climate change. A combination of adaptation measures, that include coastal protection investments for vulnerable sections along the low-lying Nile delta, support for changes in crop management practices and investments to raise irrigation efficiency, could reduce the GDP loss in 2050 to around 4 percent.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 2000. "An Inquiry on General Equilibrium Effects of MERCOSUR--An Intertemporal World Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 557-588, September.
- Fankhauser, Samuel & S.J. Tol, Richard, 2005.
"On climate change and economic growth,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, January.
- Samuel Fankhauser & Richard S.J. Tol, 2001. "On Climate Change And Economic Growth," Working Papers FNU-10, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2002.
- James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, 08.
- Thurlow, James & Yu, Winston, 2011. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," WIDER Working Paper Series 086, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Mercenier, Jean & Michel, Philippe, 1994. "Discrete-Time Finite Horizon Appromixation of Infinite Horizon Optimization Problems with Steady-State Invariance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 635-656, May.
- Sherman Robinson & Dirk Willenbockel & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 489-502, 08.
- Robinson, Sherman & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2011. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," WIDER Working Paper Series 089, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
- Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew J. Neidell, 2010. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 15717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bröcker, Johannes & Korzhenevych, Artem, 2013. "Forward looking dynamics in spatial CGE modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 389-400.
- Bröcker, Johannes & Korzhenevych, Artem, 2011. "Forward looking dynamics in spatial CGE modelling," Kiel Working Papers 1731, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Meisner, Craig & Wheeler, David & Jianping Yan, 2007. "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4136, The World Bank.
- Mercenier, J. & Da Conceicao Sampaio de Souza, M., 1991. "Structural Adjustment and Growth in a Highy Indebted Market Economy: Brazil," Cahiers de recherche 9103, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Mercenier, J. & Da Conceicao Sampaio De Souza, M., 1991. "Structural Adjustment And Growth In A Highy Indebted Market Economy: Brazil," Cahiers de recherche 9103, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 1997. "Trade Creation And Trade Diversion Under Mercorsur: A Global Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis," Staff Papers 13977, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Go, Delfin S., 1991. "External shocks, adjustment policies, and investment : illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines," Policy Research Working Paper Series 737, The World Bank.
- Brown, Casey & Meeks, Robyn & Ghile, Yonas & Hunu, Kenneth, 2010. "An empirical analysis of the effects of climate variables on national level economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5357, The World Bank.
- Karen Fisher-Vanden & Ian Sue Wing & Elisa Lanzi & David Popp, 2013. "Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: recent approaches and shortcomings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 481-495, April.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Go, Delfin S., 1994. "External shocks, adjustment policies and investment in a developing economy: Illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 229-261, August.
- Lecocq, Franck & Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "How might climate change affect economic growth in developing countries ? a review of the growth literature with a climate lens," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4315, The World Bank.
- Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
- Arndt, Channing & Thurlow, James, 2013. "Climate Uncertainty and Economic Development: Evaluating the Case of Mozambique to 2050," WIDER Working Paper Series 042, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim, 2013. "Forward-looking and myopic regional Computable General Equilibrium models: How significant is the distinction?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 160-176.
- Patrizio Lecca & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales, 2011. "Forward Looking and Myopic Regional Computable General Equilibrium Models. How Significant is the Distinction?," Working Papers 1133, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, Kim, 2012. "Forward Looking and Myopic Regional Computable General Equilibrium Models. How Significant is the Distinction?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-62, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2012. "Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Mozambique," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 463-475, 08.
- Robinson, Sherman & Yunez-Naude, Antonio & Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Devarajan, Shantayanan, 1999. "From stylized to applied models:: Building multisector CGE models for policy analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-38.
- Nicholas Stern, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 1-37, May.
- Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
- Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Post-Print hal-00716736, HAL.
- Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S., 1998. "The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 677-714, December.
- Guerrini, Luca, 2010. "A closed-form solution to the Ramsey model with logistic population growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1178-1182, September.
- Dirk Willenbockel, 2008. "Social time preference revisited," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 609-622, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.