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Trade Creation And Trade Diversion Under Mercorsur: A Global Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Somwaru, Agapi

Abstract

A multi-region, multi-sector global intertemporal general equilibrium model is constructed to analyze dynamic adjustments following the establishment of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR). The study focuses on regional trade integration effects as well as third party spillover effects. By taking into account both transitional and steady state adjustments in consumption, production, and investments, we observe significant shifts of trade diversion away from the non-member trading partners to the member countries. We also find that, following the MERCOSUR's common external tariffication, growth of intra trade would likely be accompanied by increases in trade between Mercosur and other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 1997. "Trade Creation And Trade Diversion Under Mercorsur: A Global Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis," Staff Papers 13977, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:umaesp:13977
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13977
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mercenier, J. & Da Conceicao Sampaio de Souza, M., 1991. "Structural Adjustment and Growth in a Highy Indebted Market Economy: Brazil," Cahiers de recherche 9103, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    2. Mercenier, Jean, 1995. "Can "1992" reduce unemployment in Europe? On welfare and employment effects of Europe's move to a single market," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-37, February.
    3. Mercenier, Jean & Yeldan, Erinc, 1997. "On Turkey's trade policy: Is a customs union with Europe enough?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 871-880, April.
    4. Mercenier, Jean & Michel, Philippe, 1994. "Discrete-Time Finite Horizon Appromixation of Infinite Horizon Optimization Problems with Steady-State Invariance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 635-656, May.
    5. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1989. "Tax policy, asset prices, and growth : A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 265-296, April.
    6. Adams, F. Gerard & Park, I., 1995. "Measuring the impact of AFTA: An application of a linked CGE system," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 325-365, August.
    7. Go, Delfin S., 1994. "External shocks, adjustment policies and investment in a developing economy: Illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 229-261, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elshennawy, Abeer, 2014. "The implications of phasing out energy subsidies in Egypt," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 855-866.
    2. Elshennawy, Abeer & Robinson, Sherman & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2016. "Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 681-689.
    3. Elshennawy, Abeer, 2013. "The Euro-Mediterranean free trade agreement and the cost of tariff liberalization in Egypt," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 326-338.

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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

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