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Ouverture commerciale et migration

Author

Listed:
  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed

    (FSJES de Salé)

  • Esmaeili, Hamid

    (Université Littoral Côte d’Opale)

  • Ihadiyan, Abid

    (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales)

Abstract

This article quantitatively studies the macroeconomic impact of creating a free trade area between Morocco and the European Union, while underlining its effects regarding migratory flow. The analysis framework is a computable general equilibrium model which assumes the following new international trade theory hypothesis: increasing scale outputs and products differentiation. The model, which comprises nine Moroccan economic sectors, analyzes the macroeconomic effects on emigration and the creation of a free trade area between Morocco and Europe. Results show that, under current conditions of competitiveness of the Moroccan economy, free trade would induce a strong industrial depression and a growing external deficit. It would lead to a fall in employment, particularly in industry. Consequently, Moroccan migratory flows will be maintained and developed towards Europe. Cet article étudie quantitativement l’impact macroéconomique de la constitution d’une zone de libre-échange entre le Maroc et l’Union européenne, tout en soulignant les effets en matière de flux migratoires. Le cadre d’analyse est un modèle d’équilibre général calculable statique avec des hypothèses de la nouvelle théorie du commerce international : rendements d’échelle croissants et différenciation des produits. Le modèle, comportant neuf secteurs économiques marocains, analyse les effets macroéconomiques en matière d’émigration et de constitution d’une zone de libre-échange entre le Maroc et l’Europe. Les résultats montrent que, dans les conditions actuelles de compétitivité de l’économie marocaine, le libre-échange induirait une forte dépression industrielle et un déficit extérieur croissant. Il s’ensuivrait une chute de l’emploi particulièrement dans l’industrie. Par conséquent, les flux migratoires marocains se maintiendront et s’amplifieront en direction de l’Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed & Esmaeili, Hamid & Ihadiyan, Abid, 2007. "Ouverture commerciale et migration," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(1), pages 71-90, mars.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:83:y:2007:i:1:p:71-90
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, January.
    2. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2004. "Effets de l’Accord d’association avec l’Union européenne et du démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres sur l’emploi en Tunisie : Une analyse en équilibre général intertemporel," Working Papers DT/2004/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    3. Smith, Alasdair & Venables, Anthony J., 1988. "Completing the internal market in the European Community : Some industry simulations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1501-1525, September.
    4. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fida Karam, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and the Skill Composition of Migrant Flows: the Case of Morocco," Working Papers 595, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 Jan 2011.
    2. Mohamed Karim & Mohamed Bouzahzah, 2013. "Women’s Changing Participation in the Labor Force of Moroccan Economy: An Analysis of the Sensitivity on the Results of CGE Mode," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 580-590.

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