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Ouverture commerciale et migration

  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed

    (FSJES de Salé)

  • Esmaeili, Hamid

    (Université Littoral Côte d’Opale)

  • Ihadiyan, Abid

    (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales)

This article quantitatively studies the macroeconomic impact of creating a free trade area between Morocco and the European Union, while underlining its effects regarding migratory flow. The analysis framework is a computable general equilibrium model which assumes the following new international trade theory hypothesis: increasing scale outputs and products differentiation. The model, which comprises nine Moroccan economic sectors, analyzes the macroeconomic effects on emigration and the creation of a free trade area between Morocco and Europe. Results show that, under current conditions of competitiveness of the Moroccan economy, free trade would induce a strong industrial depression and a growing external deficit. It would lead to a fall in employment, particularly in industry. Consequently, Moroccan migratory flows will be maintained and developed towards Europe. Cet article étudie quantitativement l’impact macroéconomique de la constitution d’une zone de libre-échange entre le Maroc et l’Union européenne, tout en soulignant les effets en matière de flux migratoires. Le cadre d’analyse est un modèle d’équilibre général calculable statique avec des hypothèses de la nouvelle théorie du commerce international : rendements d’échelle croissants et différenciation des produits. Le modèle, comportant neuf secteurs économiques marocains, analyse les effets macroéconomiques en matière d’émigration et de constitution d’une zone de libre-échange entre le Maroc et l’Europe. Les résultats montrent que, dans les conditions actuelles de compétitivité de l’économie marocaine, le libre-échange induirait une forte dépression industrielle et un déficit extérieur croissant. Il s’ensuivrait une chute de l’emploi particulièrement dans l’industrie. Par conséquent, les flux migratoires marocains se maintiendront et s’amplifieront en direction de l’Europe.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 83 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (mars)
Pages: 71-90

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:83:y:2007:i:1:p:71-90
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