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A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization

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  • Elbehri, Aziz
  • Hertel, Thomas

Abstract

An applied general equilibrium model with oligopoly and scale economies, based on detailed plant-level data, is used to contrast the impacts of the Morocco-EU free trade area (FTA) to multilateral trade liberalization on Morocco’s economy. Simulation results show that the FTA agreement is likely to have adverse effects on Morocco due to: (a) deteriorating terms of trade, (b) reductions in output per firm in industries dominated by scale economies, (c) diversion of imports away from non-EU suppliers, and (d) potentially adverse effects on the aggregate demand for labor. We contrast this FTA with a multilateral liberalization scenario along the lines of those proposed under the Doha Development Round and find this more beneficial to Morocco, with overall welfare gains due to: (a) lesser terms of trade losses, (b) positive scale effects, (c) non-preferential liberalization of imports into Morocco, and (d) a positive impact on aggregate labor demand. We conclude that Morocco would be better off pursuing trade liberalization in the multilateral arena.

Suggested Citation

  • Elbehri, Aziz & Hertel, Thomas, 2004. "A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization," GTAP Working Papers 1643, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:1643
    Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 30
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    File URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=1643
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    Cited by:

    1. Mouna Cherkaoui & Ayache Khellaf & Abdelaziz Nihou, 2011. "The Price Effect of Tariff Liberalization in Morocco: Measuring the Impact on Household Welfare," Working Papers 637, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    2. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Abdelmalki, Lahsen, 2007. "The Free Trade Agreement Between the United States and Morocco: The Importance of a Gradual and Assymetric Agreement," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 852-887.
    3. Hess, Sebastian, 2005. "An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24713, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Biswajit Nag & Chandrima Sikdar, 2015. "Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: A Cross-Country Analysis using Applied General Equilibrium Modelling," Working Papers id:6624, eSocialSciences.
    5. Kavallari, Aikaterini & Schmitz, P. M., 2012. "Preference erosion effects on the agricultural sector of the EU’s Mediterranean Partner Countries," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 0(Issue 2), pages 1-15.
    6. Sabine Mage-Bertomeu, 2006. "Les modèles d'équilibre général appliqués à la politique commerciale : développements récents," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(3), pages 357-381.
    7. Kavallari, Aikaterini & Borresch, Rene & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2006. "Modelling agricultural policy reforms in the Mediterranean basin - Adjustments of AGRISIM," 98th Seminar, June 29-July 2, 2006, Chania, Crete, Greece 10074, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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