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Effets de l’Accord d’association avec l’Union européenne et du démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres sur l’emploi en Tunisie : Une analyse en équilibre général intertemporel

Listed author(s):
  • Mohamed Ali Marouani

    ()

    (DIAL)

(english) This article aims at analysing the impact of the Euro-Tunisian Association Agreement and the Multifiber Agreement dismantling on employment in Tunisia. For this purpose we develop a multisectoral and intertemporal general equilibrium model taking account of the dynamic effects of these shocks. The specification of households and firms expectations permits to analyze the effects of the shocks on consumption and investment, and thus on employment. Furthermore, by including a multisectoral model of efficiency wages, the CGE model allows for an endogenous determination of wage differentials and unemployment. Moreover, one of the main innovations of the dynamic model developed is that it does not rely on the hypothesis of steady state growth at the reference scenario. Different scenarios of compensation of the Government tariff losses are implemented. The main conclusion is that the agreement with the EU helps Tunisia to minimise its job losses induced by the Multifiber Agreement dismantling. The positive impact of the free trade area is mainly due to the accumulation effects induced by the decrease of capital goods prices, capital goods being the bulk of Tunisia’s imports from the EU. The more the tax reform is investment friendly the higher accumulation effects are. _________________________________ (français) L’objet de cet article est d’analyser l’impact de l’accord d’association Tunisie-Union européenne et du démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres sur l’emploi en Tunisie. A cette fin on développe un modèle d’équilibre général multisectoriel et intertemporel permettant de prendre en compte les effets dynamiques de ces deux chocs. La prise en compte des anticipations des acteurs permet de mieux appréhender les effets des chocs sur la consommation et l’investissement et donc sur l’emploi. Un modèle multisectoriel de salaires d’efficience permet de rendre compte du fonctionnement imparfait du marché du travail qui se caractérise par des différentiels de salaires intersectoriels et un niveau de chômage endogènes. En outre, l’une des originalités du modèle dynamique développé est de lever l’hypothèse selon laquelle l’économie serait sur son sentier de croissance équilibrée dans le scénario de référence. Différents scénarios de compensation du manque à gagner fiscal sont élaborés pour pallier la perte des recettes tarifaires. La principale conclusion est que l’accord avec l’UE permet à la Tunisie de minimiser les pertes d’emplois entraînées par le démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres. L’effet bénéfique de la zone de libre-échange avec l’UE provient des effets d’accumulation entraînés par la baisse des prix des biens d’équipement, qui constituent l’essentiel des importations tunisiennes en provenance de l’UE. Ces effets sont d’autant plus forts que le scénario de compensation fiscale est favorable à l’investissement.

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File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2004/2004-01
File Function: First version, 2004
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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2004/01.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200401
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