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The Impact of the Multifiber Agreement Phaseout on Unemployment in Tunisia: A Prospective Dynamic Analysis

  • Marouani, Mohamed A.

Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Multifiber Agreement dismantling on unemployment in Tunisia. The specification of intertemporal behavior of households and firms permits the analysis of the effects of the shock on consumption and investment in the long run. By including a multisectoral model of efficiency wages, the model allows for an endogenous determination of unemployment. The main findings are that unemployment and wage inequality will increase due to the MFA phase out, and that a deeper integration with the EU can soften the negative effects of the shock.

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Paper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers with number 39.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:39
Contact details of provider: Postal: Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen
Web page: http://www.cege.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/

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  1. Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "Relative Wages, Efficiency Wages, and Keynesian Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 2590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dissou, Yazid, 2002. "Dynamic Effects in Senegal of the Regional Trade Agreement among UEMOA Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 177-99, February.
  3. repec:bil:bilpap:964 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Walsh, Frank, 1999. "A Multisector Model of Efficiency Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 351-76, April.
  5. Go, Delfin S., 1994. "External shocks, adjustment policies and investment in a developing economy: Illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 229-261, August.
  6. Wendner, Ronald, 1999. "A Calibration Procedure of Dynamic CGE Models for Non-steady State Situations Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 265-87, June.
  7. Fontana, Marzia & Wood, Adrian, 2000. "Modeling the Effects of Trade on Women, at Work and at Home," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1173-1190, July.
  8. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2000. "Ouverture commerciale et emploi. Un modèle d'équilibre général avec salaires d'efficience appliqué à la Tunisie," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(3), pages 557-569.
  9. Michel Fouquin & Pascal Morand & Richard Avisse & Gildas Minvielle & Philippe Dumont, 2002. "Mondialisation et régionalisation : le cas des industries du textile et de l'habillement," Working Papers 2002-08, CEPII research center.
  10. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2004. "Effets de l’Accord d’association avec l’Union européenne et du démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres sur l’emploi en Tunisie : Une analyse en équilibre général intertemporel," Working Papers DT/2004/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  11. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
  12. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  13. Mercenier, Jean & Yeldan, Erinc, 1997. "On Turkey's trade policy: Is a customs union with Europe enough?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 871-880, April.
  14. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Eichengreen, Barry, 1989. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-Industry Effects," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0ws6559g, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  15. Xinshen DIAO & Terry L. ROE & A. Erinç YELDAN, 1999. "How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 59-88, 03.
  16. Akerlof, George A, 1982. "Labor Contracts as Partial Gift Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 543-69, November.
  17. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S., 1998. "The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 677-714, December.
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