IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dia/wpaper/dt200705.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the End of the MFA a threat for the Tunisian Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Ali Marouani

    () (DIAL, Université Paris1-Panthéon-Sorbonne/IEDES.)

Abstract

(english) The end of the Multifiber Agreement in January 2005 had a negative impact on the Tunisian apparel industry, but the effects were weaker than expected. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the article provides a prospective assessment of the impact on Tunisia of the phase out of the MFA and of the agreement which manages the rate of growth of Chinese clothing exports to Europe until the end of 2007. The main findings are an increase in unemployment and wage inequality, but no significant effects on the main macroeconomic variables if the exchange rate management takes into account this shock. _________________________________ (français) Le démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres en janvier 2005 a eu un impact négatif sur l’industrie d’habillement tunisienne, mais les effets ont été plus limités que prévu. A l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique l’article propose une évaluation prospective de l’impact sur la Tunisie du démantèlement de l’AMF et de l’accord d’auto-limitation des exportations de vêtements qui prend fin en 2007. La principale conclusion consiste en un accroissement du chômage et des inégalités de salaires. Cependant, en présence d’une gestion adéquate du taux de change par la Banque centrale, les principales autres variables macro-économiques sont peu affectées par le choc.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2007. "Is the End of the MFA a threat for the Tunisian Economy?," Working Papers DT/2007/05, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200705
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2007/2007-05
    File Function: First version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Walsh, 1995. "A multisector model of efficiency wages," Working Papers 199501, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. Xinshen DIAO & Terry L. ROE & A. Erinç YELDAN, 1999. "How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, pages 59-88.
    3. Wendner, Ronald, 1999. "A Calibration Procedure of Dynamic CGE Models for Non-steady State Situations Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 265-287, June.
    4. Walsh, Frank, 1999. "A Multisector Model of Efficiency Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 351-376, April.
    5. Fontana, Marzia & Wood, Adrian, 2000. "Modeling the Effects of Trade on Women, at Work and at Home," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1173-1190, July.
    6. Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Relative Wages, Efficiency Wages, and Keynesian Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 383-388.
    7. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    8. Dissou, Yazid, 2002. "Dynamic Effects in Senegal of the Regional Trade Agreement among UEMOA Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 177-199.
    9. Bulow, Jeremy I & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy,Discrimination, and Keynesian Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 376-414, July.
    10. Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Relative Wages, Efficiency Wages, and Keynesian Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 383-388.
    11. George A. Akerlof, 1982. "Labor Contracts as Partial Gift Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(4), pages 543-569.
    12. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-280, May.
    13. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 433-444.
    14. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S., 1998. "The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, pages 677-714.
    15. Go, Delfin S., 1994. "External shocks, adjustment policies and investment in a developing economy: Illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 229-261.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE models; employment; textiles; apparel; trade; Tunisia; modèle EGC; emploi; textile; habillement; commerce; Tunisie.;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Loic Le Pezennec). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/diallfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.