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How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey

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  • Xinshen DIAO
  • Terry L. ROE
  • A. Erinç YELDAN

Abstract

We utilize a multi-sector general equilibrium model based on intertemporally optimizing agents to study issues of trade liberalization and fiscal adjustments in the context of the Turkish economy. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of the distortionary consequences of excessive borrowing requirements of the public sector through increased domestic interest costs. The model results suggest that the postponement of adjustment to growing public debt and fiscal imbalances could be detrimental; and that in the absence of coordinated fiscal reforms, the welfare gains expected from trade liberalization may significantly be negated.
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  • Xinshen DIAO & Terry L. ROE & A. Erinç YELDAN, 1999. "How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 59-88, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:37:y:1999:i:1:p:59-88
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1746-1049.1999.tb00865.x
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    4. Marouani, Mohamed A., 2005. "The Impact of the Multifiber Agreement Phaseout on Unemployment in Tunisia: A Prospective Dynamic Analysis," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 39, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry & Yeldan, Erinc, 1999. "Strategic policies and growth: an applied model of R&D-driven endogenous growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 343-380, December.
    6. Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes & Teixeira, Erly Cardoso, 2008. "Economic Impacts of Brazilian Indirect Tax Reduction: An analysis of the competitiveness within MERCOEURO," Working Papers in Applied Economics 53440, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.
    7. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    8. Bayar, Ali. & Diao, Xinshen & Yeldan, A. Erinc, 2000. "An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union," TMD discussion papers 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2007. "Is the End of the MFA a threat for the Tunisian Economy?," Working Papers DT/2007/05, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    10. Dina Mandour, 2007. "Investigating The Impact Of Health and Enviromental Standards on Exports: The Case Of Egyptian Agro-Food Exports To The EU," Working Papers 707, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2007.

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