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An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union

  • Bayar, Ali.
  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Yeldan, A. Erinc

With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, the authors study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. They specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the commodity and foreign capital flows across regions in an endogenous setting, and its explicit portrayal of the out-of-steady state dynamics under an intertemporal optimization framework. They explore the short- versus the long-run economic impacts of alternative trade and investment policies on agricultural production, foreign trade, resource allocation, accumulation, consumer welfare, and income distribution in the regions of analyis. The results reveal significant gains from increased bilateral trade between the identified regions, and further underscore the crucial importance of financing commodity trade deficits in sustaining the accumulation patterns.

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Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series TMD discussion papers with number 56.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:56
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  1. Roberto A. De Santis, 2003. "The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 349-372.
  2. Mercenier, J. & Da Conceicao Sampaio De Souza, M., 1991. "Structural Adjustment And Growth In A Highy Indebted Market Economy: Brazil," Cahiers de recherche 9103, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. J. Mercenier & Erin Yeldan, 1996. "On Turkey's Trade Policy : Is A Customs Union with Europe Enough?," Working Papers 9604, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  4. Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L Alan, 1998. "Dynamics and Politics in Regional Integration Arrangements: An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(2), pages 177-95, May.
  5. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 2000. "An Inquiry on General Equilibrium Effects of MERCOSUR--An Intertemporal World Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 557-588, September.
  6. Meilke, Karl D. & McClatchy, Don & de Gorter, Harry, 1995. "Challenges In Quantitative Economic Analysis In Support Of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 51215, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  7. Bagwell, Kyle & Staiger, Robert W, 1998. "Will Preferential Agreements Undermine the Multilateral Trading System?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1162-82, July.
  8. Xinshen DIAO & Terry L. ROE & A. Erinç YELDAN, 1999. "How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 59-88, 03.
  9. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-34.
  10. Fernandez, Raquel & Portes, Jonathan, 1998. "Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(2), pages 197-220, May.
  11. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 861-870, April.
  12. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Greenaway, David & Panagariya, Arvind, 1998. "Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1128-48, July.
  13. A. T. Blake & A. J. Rayner & G. V. Reed, 1999. "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Agricultural Liberalisation: The Uruguay Round and Common Agricultural Policy Reform," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 400-424.
  14. De Santis, Roberto A., 1998. "The impact of a Customs Union with the EU on internal migration in Turkey under the two alternative Harris-Todaro and wage curve settings," Kiel Working Papers 867, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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