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The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey

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  • Roberto A. De Santis

Abstract

The impact of the recent Customs Union (CU) agreement between Turkey and the European Union on internal migration is studied using an intra-industry trade Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with intersectoral capital mobility under two alternative specifications for the labor market: the traditional Harris-Todaro approach and the existence of a "wage curve" in the urban sector. Under both specifications, the numerical results show that the CU is welfare enhancing and causes a reduction of the urban-rural wage gap as suggested by theoretical studies. At the same time, it leads to rural-to-urban migration and raises the capital rent, results that are counter intuitive with respect to the dual economy literature. Furthermore, the rise in formal labor demand and the migration response to the CU have not resulted in an increase in urban unemployment (i.e. the "Todaro paradox"), but rather to a fall in the unemployment pool. The study also shows that the Bhagwati-Srinivasan proposal of maximizing welfare by uniformly subsidizing the entire labor market is impracticable, especially if the high wage union sector can negotiate employment conditions. Copyright Blackwell Publishing, Inc 2003

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  • Roberto A. De Santis, 2003. "The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 349-372.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:43:y:2003:i:2:p:349-372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Srinivasan, T N, 1974. "On Reanalyzing the Harris-Todaro Model: Policy Rankings in the Case of Sector-Specific Sticky Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 502-508, June.
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    3. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, January.
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    5. Jan K. Brueckner & Hyun-A Kim, 2001. "Land Markets in the Harris-Todaro Model: A New Factor Equilibrating Rural-Urban Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 507-520.
    6. A. De Santis, Robert, 2000. "The Impact of a Customs Union with the EU on Turkey’s Welfare, Employment and Income Distribution: An AGE Model with Alternative Labour Market Structures," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 15, pages 195-238.
    7. Brueckner, Jan K. & Zenou, Yves, 1999. "Harris-Todaro models with a land market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 317-339, May.
    8. Thomas Krichel & Paul Levine, 1997. "The Welfare Economics of Rural to Urban Migration: The Harris-Todaro Model Revisited," School of Economics Discussion Papers 9702, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    9. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S., 1997. "Has the wage curve nullified the Harris-Todaro model? Further US evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 277-282, July.
    10. Hamid Beladi & Sugata Marjit, 1996. "An Analysis of Rural-Urban Migration and Protection," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 930-940, November.
    11. Parai, Amar K. & Batra, Raveendra N., 1987. "Customs union and unemployment in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 311-319, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bayar, Ali. & Diao, Xinshen & Yeldan, A. Erinc, 2000. "An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union," TMD discussion papers 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Josef Pöschl & Hermine Vidovic & Julia Wörz & Vasily Astrov, 2005. "Turkey:Macroeconomic Vulnerability,Competitiveness and the Labour Market," Working Papers 2005/5, Turkish Economic Association.
    3. Kitwiwattanachai, Anyarath & Nelson, Doug & Reed, Geoffrey, 2010. "Quantitative impacts of alternative East Asia Free Trade Areas: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 286-301, March.

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