IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wii/cprofi/21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Turkey: Macroeconomic Vulnerability, Competitiveness and the Labour Market

Author

Listed:
  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Josef Pöschl
  • Hermine Vidovic

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Julia Wörz

Abstract

Up to 2001, serial default characterized Turkey's economy. The wiiw study analyses the reform steps undertaken in recent years, raising the question whether the economy's vulnerability may have diminished. At least for the time being, so the result, the proneness to crisis is low. The long-run development however will depend on the central bank's policies with regard to inflation and the exchange rate and on the existence of reform-oriented strong governments. The latter condition will not be easily achievable as painful reforms have a high potential to lead to an erosion of popularity. Another aspect addressed in the study are the changes in the structure of the Turkish economy. The wiiw study focuses on a very important Copenhagen criterion, the enterprises' ability to withstand international competition, which manifests itself in foreign trade and current account results. The relevance of this aspect increased with the start of the customs union between the EU and Turkey in 1996. It will increase further with the projected inclusion of agricultural products as well as services. With regard to indicators of competitiveness, the wiiw study compares Turkey to old and new EU member states and candidate states alike. It shows that Turkey's economy is opening up and that the structure of exports is changing rapidly. Turkey holds a strategic geographical position with regard to transport of mineral fuels, a topic briefly addressed in the study. It is the labour market where Turkey differs strongly from what is standard both in EU-15 countries and in the central European new member states. One chapter of the study is dedicated to this very important topic. The overall picture drawn by the study is an economy rich in contrasts in many respects between urban and rural, rich and poor, official and black, technologically advanced and archaic. Apart from the conditions prevailing in the labour market, the development trends of Turkey's economy do not differ substantially from what can be observed in the new EU member states and the candidate countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov & Josef Pöschl & Hermine Vidovic & Julia Wörz, 2005. "Turkey: Macroeconomic Vulnerability, Competitiveness and the Labour Market," wiiw Country Profile 21, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:cprofi:21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/turkey-macroeconomic-vulnerability-competitiveness-and-the-labour-market-dlp-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neyer, Gerda, 2003. "Family Policies and Low Fertility in Western Europe," Discussion Paper 161, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Insan Tunali, 1996. "Education and Work Experiences of 6-14 Year-Old Children in Turkey," Working Papers 9638, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 Dec 1996.
    3. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "How Risky is Financial Liberalization in the Developing Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Murat Iyigun & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "On the Efficacy of Reforms: Policy Tinkering, Institutional Change, and Entrepreneurship," NBER Working Papers 10455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Saracoglu, Durdane Sirin & Roe, Terry L., 2004. "Rural-Urban Migration and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Conference papers 331216, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. K. Azim Ozdemir, 2004. "Public Debt in Turkey," Working Papers 0411, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. C. Emre Alper, 2001. "The Turkish Liquidity Crisis of 2000: What Went Wrong..," Working Papers 2001/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    8. Hutchison, Michael M & Noy, Ilan, 2005. "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 725-752, August.
    9. Aysit Tansel, 2001. "Economic Development and Female Labor Force Participation in Turkey: Time-Series Evidence and Cross-Province Estimates," Working Papers 0124, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 2001.
    10. Alfred Steinherr & Ali Tukel & Murat Ucer, 2004. "The Turkish Banking Sector - Challenges And Outlook In Transition To Eu Membership," Economic and Financial Reports 2004/2, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    11. Dimitri Mardas & Thomas Moutos, 2002. "The EU-Turkey Customs Union and Greece: Who is the loser?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(4), pages 275-286, November.
    12. C. Emre Alper & Ziya Onis, 2002. "Soft Budget Constraints, Government Ownership of Banks and Regulatory Failure: The Political Economy of the Turkish Banking System in the Post-Capital Account Liberalization Era," Working Papers 2002/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    13. Hutchison, Michael M & Noy, Ilan, 2005. "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 725-752, August.
    14. Roberto A. De Santis, 2003. "The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 349-372, May.
    15. Jan Stankovsky & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2004. "Potential Markets for Austrian Exports," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 9(3), pages 115-126, August.
    16. Gerda R. Neyer, 2003. "Family policies and low fertility in Western Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Alfred Steinherr & Ali Tukel & Murat Ucer, 2004. "The Turkish Banking Sector, Challenges and Outlook in Transition to EU Membership," Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 9, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Josef Pöschl & Hermine Vidovic & Julia Wörz & Vasily Astrov, 2005. "Turkey:Macroeconomic Vulnerability,Competitiveness and the Labour Market," Working Papers 2005/5, Turkish Economic Association.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    3. Edsel Beja Jr., 2007. "The Tenth Anniversary of the Asian Financial Crisis: A Retrospective on East Asian Economic Performance," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(5), pages 57-72.
    4. Viktor Shevchuk, 2017. "The Impact of Anticipated and Unanticipated Exchange Rate Variability in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 241, pages 33-46.
    5. Mr. Wendell A. Samuel & Emilio Pineda & Mr. Mario Dehesa, 2009. "Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/077, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
    7. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
    8. König, Philipp & Anand, Kartik & Heinemann, Frank, 2013. "The ‘Celtic Crisis’: Guarantees, transparency, and systemic liquidity risk," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79747, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Youngseop, 2007. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2012. "How costly are debt crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 726-742.
    11. Angelika Tölke, 2004. "Die Bedeutung von Herkunftsfamilie, Berufsbiografie und Partnerschaften für den Übergang zur Ehe und Vaterschaft," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Natalia Danzer & Victor Lavy, 2018. "Paid Parental Leave and Children's Schooling Outcomes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 81-117, February.
    13. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 289-307, December.
    14. Bohl, Martin T. & Michaelis, Philip & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 195-207.
    15. Qian, Xingwang & Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "International reserves and the maturity of external debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 399-418.
    16. Daniele Vignoli & Anna Matysiak & Marta Styrc & Valentina Tocchioni, 2018. "The positive impact of women’s employment on divorce: Context, selection, or anticipation?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(37), pages 1059-1110.
    17. Vladislava Stankuniene & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2008. "Lithuania: Fertility decline and its determinants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(20), pages 705-742.
    18. Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "International Reserve Management and the Current Account," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 11, pages 435-474, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2010. "Parliamentary election cycles and the Turkish banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2709-2719, November.
    20. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wii:cprofi:21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Customer service (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wiiwwat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.