IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/isegwp/wp122001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government indebtedness and european consumers behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso

Abstract

According to conventional macroeconomics, public debt has a significant effect on the economy since consumers see public debt as net wealth, however, according to the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis, that effect would be absent. This paper’s results, obtained from Euler equation estimations, using a panel data approach, indicate that it would be wise to reject the debt neutrality hypothesis for the EU-15. However, estimations carried out after dividing the countries into two groups, tentatively allow us to conclude that private consumption in "less indebted" countries seems to be more responsive to wealth increases than in the "more indebted" countries.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso, 2001. "Government indebtedness and european consumers behaviour," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp122001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://depeco.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wp/wp122001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evans, Paul, 1993. "Consumers Are Not Ricardian: Evidence from Nineteen Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 534-548, October.
    2. Dalamagas, Basil A, 1992. "How Rival Are the Ricardian Equivalence Proposition and the Fiscal Policy Potency View?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(4), pages 457-476, November.
    3. Becker, Gary S, 1974. "A Theory of Social Interactions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1063-1093, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    5. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    8. A. Bhargava & L. Franzini & W. Narendranathan, 2006. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 4, pages 61-77, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Himarios, Daniel, 1995. "Euler equation tests of Ricardian equivalence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 165-171, May.
    10. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    11. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Alan S. Blinder & Angus Deaton, 1985. "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 465-521.
    13. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Reflections on Ricardian Equivalence," NBER Working Papers 5502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Duane Rockerbie, 1997. "Are consumers Ricardian when some are liquidity constrained? Evidence for the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 821-827.
    15. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    16. Christ, Carl F., 1978. "Some dynamic theory of macroeconomic policy effects on income and prices under the government budget restraint," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 45-70, January.
    17. Evans, Paul, 1988. "Are Consumers Ricardian? Evidence for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 983-1004, October.
    18. Leiderman, Leonardo & Razin, Assaf, 1988. "Testing Ricardian Neutrality with an Intertemporal Stochastic Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, February.
    19. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-127, March.
    20. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    21. Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin, 1978. "Debt Neutrality: A Brief Review of Doctrine and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 497, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    22. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    23. Ruth A. Judson & Ann L. Owen, "undated". "Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Practical Guide for Macroeconomists," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    24. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-190, March.
    25. Fumio Hayashi, 1979. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing," Discussion Papers 484, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    26. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
    27. Carmichael, Jeffrey, 1982. "On Barro's Theorem of Debt Neutrality: The Irrelevance of Net Wealth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 202-213, March.
    28. Khalid, Ahmed M., 1996. "Ricardian equivalence: Empirical evidence from developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 413-432, December.
    29. Aschauer, David Alan, 1988. "The Equilibrium Approach to Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 41-62, February.
    30. O'Driscoll, Gerald P, Jr, 1977. "The Ricardian Nonequivalence Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 207-210, February.
    31. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    32. Sims, Christopher A., 1998. "Econometric implications of the government budget constraint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 9-19.
    33. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    34. Dwight M. Jaffee & Thomas Russell, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(4), pages 651-666.
    35. Buchanan, James M, 1976. "Barro on the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 337-342, April.
    36. Karl Whelan, 1991. "Ricardian equivalence and the Irish consumption function : the evidence re-examined," Open Access publications 10197/215, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    37. David C. Rose & David R. Hakes, 1995. "Deficits and Interest Rates as Evidence of Ricardian Equivalence," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 57-66, Winter.
    38. Phelps, Edmund S, 1982. "Cracks on the Demand Side: A Year of Crisis in Theoretical Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 378-381, May.
    39. Eisner, Robert, 1989. "Budget Deficits: Rhetoric and Reality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 73-93, Spring.
    40. Cushing, Matthew J, 1992. "Liquidity Constraints and Aggregate Consumption Behavior," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(1), pages 134-153, January.
    41. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1989. "A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 55-72, Spring.
    42. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Wroblowsky, 2007. "Explaining the Variability of Debt Neutrality Tests Results: A Meta-Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 5(1), pages 7-24.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso, 2008. "Euler testing Ricardo and Barro in the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(16), pages 1-14.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:16:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1997_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption: Saving decisions: Testing the finite horizon model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    6. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    7. Waqas, Muhamad & Awan, Masood Sarwar & Aslam, Muhammad Amir, 2011. "We are living on the cost of our children," MPRA Paper 32044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption: Saving decisions: Evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    9. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption : Saving decisions : Evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    10. Roberto Ricciuti, 2003. "Assessing Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 55-78, February.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1996_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Ricardian equivalence and the public and private saving nexus in India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(36), pages 3579-3598, August.
    13. Gianluigi Giorgioni & Ken Holden, 2003. "Ricardian equivalence, expansionary fiscal contraction and the stock market: a VECM approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1435-1443.
    14. Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2006. "Ευρωπαϊκή Δημοσιονομική Πολιτική Και Οικονομική Μεγέθυνση: Η Νεοκλασική Οικονομική Θεωρία Για Την Περίπτωση Της Ελλάδας [European Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: The Neoclassical Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 44310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    16. Tomas Wroblowsky, 2007. "Explaining the Variability of Debt Neutrality Tests Results: A Meta-Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 5(1), pages 7-24.
    17. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Joseph Mawejje & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "The determinants of fiscal deficits: a survey of literature," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 403-417, September.
    19. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    20. Islam, Roumeen & Wetzel, Deborah L., 1991. "The macroeconomics of public sector deficits : the case of Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 672, The World Bank.
    21. Sardoni, Claudio, 2021. "The public debt and the Ricardian equivalence: Some critical remarks," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 153-160.
    22. Becker, Torbjörn, 1995. "Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 71, Stockholm School of Economics.
    23. Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uuskula, 2004. "Liquidity Constrains and Ricardian Equivalence in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-7, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2004.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deficit finance; Ricardian equivalence; Private consumption; European Union; panel data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp122001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vitor Escaria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://aquila.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.