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Les conséquences pour les pays en développement de la suppression des quotas dans le textile habillement : le cas de la Tunisie

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Raphael Chaponniere

    (CNRS-CEPN / Paris XIII university)

  • Jean-Pierre Cling

    (DIAL)

  • Mohamed Ali Marouani

    (DIAL)

Abstract

(français) Les PED réalisent aujourd’hui la quasi-totalité des exportations mondiales d’habillement et la majorité des exportations textiles. Depuis 1974, les quotas instaurés pour les exportations des PED vers les pays industrialisés dans le cadre des AMF ont entraîné d’importantes distorsions dans l’allocation géographique de la production et des exportations de ces produits. La multiplication des accords commerciaux régionaux est allée dans le même sens. Cet article s’intéresse au cas des pays du Sud et de l’Est de la Méditerranée (PSEM), et plus particulièrement de la Tunisie, qui ont réussi à développer une industrie de l’habillement grâce à l’accès préférentiel au marché européen dont ils bénéficient. La suppression totale des quotas à partir du 1er janvier 2005 va se traduire par une concentration accrue du secteur au niveau mondial, au bénéfice des principaux exportateurs (Chine, Inde, etc.) et au détriment des pays qui n’étaient pas soumis aux quotas. Nous évaluons l’impact négatif de ce choc sur l’économie tunisienne à l’aide d’un modèle multisectoriel et dynamique d’équilibre général. Nous estimons que l’activité du secteur du textile-habillement pourrait être fortement affectée, avec pour principales conséquences une baisse de l’investissement global et un accroissement du taux de chômage des travailleurs non qualifiés. _________________________________ (english) Clothing and textile exports are increasingly dominated by developing countries. In 1974, developed countries implemented quotas on developing countries exports within the MFA, which resulted in a distorted geographical allocation of production and exports. Regional preferential agreements also contributed to this distortion. This article deals with the case of Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries, and particularly Tunisia, which succeeded in developing a flourishing clothing industry thanks to their preferential access to the European market. The total removal of quotas in January 2005 will result in a higher concentration of the sector which will benefit the main players (China, India, etc.). The main losers would be those who built their prosperity on their preferential treatment. We assess the negative impact of this shock on the Tunisian economy using a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model. The main results are a shrinking of the textile sector which induces a downward pressure on total investment and an increase of the unskilled unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Raphael Chaponniere & Jean-Pierre Cling & Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2004. "Les conséquences pour les pays en développement de la suppression des quotas dans le textile habillement : le cas de la Tunisie," Working Papers DT/2004/16, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), revised Dec 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200416
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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