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Implications of WTO Agreements and Domestic Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh: Short vs. Long Run


  • Nabil Annabi
  • H. Khondker Bazlul
  • Selim Raihan
  • John Cockburn
  • Bernard Decaluwe


We examine the impacts of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare and poverty in Bangladesh. A sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, is used allowing for long run analysis. The study is based on 2000 SAM of Bangladesh including fifteen production sectors, four factors of production (skilled and unskilled labour, agricultural and non-agricultural capital) and mine household groups (five in rural areas and four in urban areas) based on the year 2000 household survey. To examine the link between the macro effects and micro effects in terms of poverty we use the representative household approach with actual intra-group income distributions. The study presents five simulations for which the major findings are: (1) the Doha scenario has negative implications for the overall macro economy, household welfare and poverty in Bangladesh. Terms of trade deteriorate and consumer prices, particularly food prices, increase more than nominal incomes, especially among poor households; (2) Free world trade has similar, but larger, impacts; (3) Domestic trade liberalisation induces an expansion of agricultural and light manufacturing sectors, favourable changes in the domestic terms of trade. Although the short run welfare and poverty impacts are negative, these turn positive in the long run when capital has adjusted through new investments. Rising unskilled wage rates make the poorest household the biggest winners in terms of welfare and poverty reduction; (4) Domestic liberalisation effects far outweigh those of free world trade when these scenarios are combined; (5) Remittances constitute a powerful poverty-reducing tool given their greater importance in the income of the poor.

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  • Nabil Annabi & H. Khondker Bazlul & Selim Raihan & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwe, 2005. "Implications of WTO Agreements and Domestic Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh: Short vs. Long Run," Working Papers MPIA 2005-02, PEP-MPIA.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2005-02

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 383-415.
    2. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 2001. "Impact of the MFA phase-out on the world economy," TMD discussion papers 79, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Bernard Decaluwé & Luc Savard, 2003. "Poverty, Income Distribution and CGE Modeling: Does the Functional Form of Distribution Matter?," Cahiers de recherche 0332, CIRPEE.
    4. Montfort Mlachila & Yongzheng Yang, 2004. "The End of Textiles Quotas; A Case Study of the Impacton Bangladesh," IMF Working Papers 04/108, International Monetary Fund.
    5. John C. Beghin & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2002. "Global Agricultural Trade and the Doha Round: What are the Implications for North and South?," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 02-wp308, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    6. Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 688-726.
    7. Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Globalization and growth -- looking in the wrong places," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 513-517, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nabil Annabi & Youssef Boudribila & Simon Harvey, 2013. "Labour supply and income distribution effects of the working income tax benefit: a general equilibrium microsimulation analysis," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, December.
    2. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2006. "Textiles Protection and Poverty in South Africa/La protection du secteur des textiles et la pauvreté en Afrique du Sud: une analyse en équilibre général calculable dynamique micro-simulé," Working Papers MPIA 2007-01, PEP-MPIA.
    3. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2007. "South Africa Trade Liberalization and Poverty in a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model," Working Papers 200718, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Hoque, Serajul, 2008. "The macroeconomic, industrial and distributional effects of removing tariffs in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 9577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zuzana Křístková, 2010. "Approaches to the Dynamization of the CGE Model Applied to the Czech Republic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(0), pages 59-82, May.
    6. Nabil Annabi & Maxime Fougere & Min Li, 2013. "Foreign Competition and Income Distribution in Canada: A Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 525-547, December.
    7. Zuzana Křístková, 2010. "Approaches to the Dynamization of the CGE Model Applied to the Czech Republic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(0), pages 59-82, May.
    8. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 0512, CIRPEE.
    9. John Gilbert, 2011. "Trade reforms under Doha and income distribution in South Asia," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT,in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 12 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    10. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2007. "Poverty and Inequality Impacts of Trade Policy Reforms in South Africa," Working Papers MPIA 2007-19, PEP-MPIA.
    11. Bernard Decaluwé & John Cockburn & Fatou Cissé & Nabil Annabi, 2008. "Libéralisation commerciale, croissance et pauvreté au Sénégal : une analyse à l’aide d’un MEGC microsimulé dynamique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 186(5), pages 117-131.
    12. Nahar, Bodrun & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2009. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Bangladesh: A General Equilibrium Approach," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47629, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    13. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural trade reform and poverty in the Asia-Pacific region: a survey and some new results," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 15(1), pages 1-34, June.

    More about this item


    Dynamic CGE model; International trade; Poverty; Bangladesh;

    JEL classification:

    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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