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Doha Round Impacts on India: A Study in a Sequential Dynamic CGE Framework

  • Raihan, Selim
  • Khondker, Bazlul Haque

The objective of this research has been to examine the impact of Doha round negotiations on the economy of India. This research looked into the impact of agricultural trade liberalisation and the impact of NAMA negations under the Doha negotiations, the combined effects of agricultural and NAMA negotiations, and the impact of liberalisation of the domestic services sectors. With a view to addressing these important issues, this study has examined the effects of the Doha agreement for India in a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. A Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2006 has been used as the database. The major findings of these exercises suggest that agricultural liberalization under the Doha round would have very little effect on Indian GDP. The welfare effects are positive and the effects are stronger in the long run. Poverty falls for all household categories both in the short and long run. In sum, the agricultural trade liberalization would generate positive outcomes for the Indian economy. The NAMA scenario would lead to a rise in real GDP despite the fact that a number of manufacturing sector would contract. This is because of the more than offsetting effect of the expansion of textiles as well as some services and agricultural sectors. Poverty indices would rise for all household categories and the households relying more on non-agricultural capital income as well as on unskilled labour income would experience higher incidence of poverty. In sum, the NAMA scenario would lead to some negative outcomes for the Indian economy. The full Doha scenario would lead to rise in real GDP in the short run and the effect is stronger in the long run. In the short run, the aggregate welfare declines. However, in the long run the negative effect on welfare appears to be very minimal. In sum, the Doha scenario would lead to a mixed results.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 37897.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37897
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  1. J. Francois & H. van Meijl & F. van Tongeren, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the Doha Round," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-060/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Aug 2003.
  2. John C. Beghin & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2002. "Global Agricultural Trade and the Doha Round: What are the Implications for North and South?," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 02-wp308, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  3. Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2003. "OECD Domestic Support and the Developing Countries," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22000, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Kym Anderson & Joseph Francois & Will Martin, 2002. "Agriculture and Non-Agricultural Liberalization in the Millennium Round," GTAP Working Papers 235, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  5. Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman, 2003. "OECD Domestic Support and Developing Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  6. Jung, Hong-Sang & Thorbecke, Erik, 2003. "The impact of public education expenditure on human capital, growth, and poverty in Tanzania and Zambia: a general equilibrium approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 701-725, November.
  7. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi & Roe, Terry L., 2001. "A Global Analysis Of Agricultural Trade Reform In Wto Member Countries," Bulletins 12984, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
  8. van Tongeren, Frank W. & van Meijl, Hans, 2006. "Multilateral Trade Liberalisation and Developing Countries: A North-South Perspective on Agriculture and Processing Sectors," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25462, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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