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WTO and regional trade negotiation outcomes: quantitative assessments of potential implications on Bangladesh

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  • Raihan, Selim
  • Razzaque, Mohammad A

Abstract

Despite being somewhat paradoxical, the world has in recent times witnessed ambitious multilateral trade negotiations along with a proliferation of regional trading blocs. Almost all countries are now involved in both types of trading arrangements, with Bangladesh actively participating in several important trade talks under the World Trade Oganisation (WTO) alongside its commitments to the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). Different multilateral and regional trade negotiations have, however, different implications. For example, while the liberalisation of global agricultural trade – by reducing subsidies in rich countries and thereby causing prices to rise – will benefit many developing country farmers, it may hurl a formidable challenge for the net food importing countries in ensuring food security for their poor populations. Similarly, WTO negotiations in non-agricultural goods aim at improving market access for many, but for the least developed countries, including Bangladesh, currently enjoying tariff preferences in a large range of products in major markets, the ensuing outcomes could lead to preference erosion, undermining their competitiveness. Regional trading arrangements can also be challenging as they tend to replace global imports with less efficient regional supplies resulting in adverse welfare consequences. Effective trade negotiations partly depend on a priori assessments of possible negotiation outcomes. As such, it is very important to provide the policymakers and trade negotiators with informed inputs on the potential implications of negotiating issues. Since trade negotiations comprise subject matters of conflicting interests – often amongst countries at comparable levels of development that otherwise share and support similar views and positions – only country-specific objective analyses based on appropriate research methods can inform the negotiators in the best possible way. This book is an endeavour in that direction. It focuses on some of the major issues in the on-going multilateral and regional trade negotiations, and employs state-of-the-art analytical tools to empirically assess their likely implications for Bangladesh. While the analyses and results presented would be useful for policymakers and trade negotiators, this volume would also be of interest to trade analysts involved in empirical research.

Suggested Citation

  • Raihan, Selim & Razzaque, Mohammad A, 2007. "WTO and regional trade negotiation outcomes: quantitative assessments of potential implications on Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38475
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    Cited by:

    1. Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Taufique, Khan Md. Raziuddin, 2019. "Import Inflows of Bangladesh: The Gravity Model Approach," SocArXiv etmzk, Center for Open Science.
    2. Md. Joynal Abdin, 2009. "An Analysis of SAFTA in the Context of Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Research Working Paper Series (BDRWPS) BDRWPS No. 6, Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC).
    3. Ge, Jianping & Lei, Yalin & Tokunaga, Suminori, 2014. "Non-grain fuel ethanol expansion and its effects on food security: A computable general equilibrium analysis for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 346-356.
    4. Mustafizur Rahman & Towfiqul Islam Khan & Ashiqun Nabi & Tapas Kumar Paul, 2011. "Bangladesh’s Export Opportunities in the Indian Market," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 12(1), pages 117-141, March.
    5. Raihan, Selim, 2012. "SAFTA and the South Asian Countries: Quantitative Assessments of Potential Implications," MPRA Paper 37884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mustafizur Rahman & Towfiqul Islam Khan & Ashiqun Nabi & Tapas Kumar Paul, 2010. "Bangladesh's Export Opportunities in the Indian Market: Addressing Barriers and Strategies for Future," CPD Working Paper 90, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    7. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Begum, Ismat Ara, 2012. "World and Bangladesh Rice Market Integration: An Application of Threshold Cointegration and Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM)," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 135119, Agricultural Economics Society.
    8. Hansa Jain, 2019. "Implications of SAFTA for Indian Economy: Trade, Compatibility and Welfare Effects," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 355-374, November.
    9. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Bhuiyan, Nazmul & Begum, Ismat Ara & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2012. "Tracing the Poverty Impact of Market Reforms in Bangladesh," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 123758, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. De, Prabir & Raihan, Selim & Kathuria, Sanjay, 2012. "Unlocking Bangladesh-India trade : emerging potential and the way forward," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6155, The World Bank.
    11. Mohammad Alam & Jeroen Buysse & Andrew McKenzie & Ismat Begum & Eric Wailes & Guido Van Huylenbroeck, 2012. "The dynamic relationships between world and domestic prices of rice under the regime of agricultural trade liberalization in Bangladesh," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 113-126.
    12. Raihan, Selim, 2011. "Economic Corridors in South Asia: Exploring the Benefits of Market Access and Trade Facilitation," MPRA Paper 37883, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WTO; SAFTA; CGE model; Bangladesh;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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