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Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong

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  • Muscatelli, V A
  • Srinivasan, T G
  • Vines, D

Abstract

This paper considers the issue of whether a small developing economy such as Hong Kong faces a perfectly elastic demand for its exports of manufactured goods. The authors construct a simultaneous demand and supply system which is estimated using Full Information Maximum Likelihood methods, and which allows us to clearly identify demand and supply factors in determining export volumes and prices. The authors empirical findings differ from previous studies conducted with this data set in that they suggest that even a small dynamic newly industrialized economy such as Hong Kong may not face an infinitely elastic demand for its manufactured goods. They also advance some reasons to explain why the "small country assumption" may not be applicable in the case of most industrialized economies. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Muscatelli, V A & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, D, 1992. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1467-1477, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:102:y:1992:i:415:p:1467-77
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    2. Ermisch, John & Westaway, Peter, 1994. "The Dynamics of Aggregate Consumption in an Open Economy Life Cycle Model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 113-127, May.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Bardaka, Ioanna C., 2010. "New trade theory, non-price competitiveness and export performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 217-228, January.
    2. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    3. Prof Peter G. Warr & Fracnes J. Wollmer, 1996. "The International Demand for Thailand's Rice Exports," Trade and Development 96/10, Australian National University, Department of Economics.
    4. Afia Malik, 2000. "Demand For Textile And Clothing Exports Of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2000:180, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    5. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Menzies, Gordon & Vines, David, 2007. "Stiglitz Versus the IMF on the Asian Debt Crisis: An Intertemporal Model with Real Exchange Rate Overshooting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    7. Raihan, Selim & Razzaque, Mohammad A, 2007. "WTO and regional trade negotiation outcomes: quantitative assessments of potential implications on Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Utku UTKULU & Dilek SEYMEN & Aydin ARI, "undated". "Export Supply and Trade Reform: The Turkish Evidence," EcoMod2004 330600144, EcoMod.
    9. Mody, Ashoka & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1997. "Is there persistence in the growth of manufactured exports? Evidence from newly industrializing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 447-470, August.
    10. Barros, Alexandre Rands & Amazonas, Analice, 1996. "Manufactured exports from Brazil: determinants and consequences," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finan├žas, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 50(1), January.
    11. Niemi, Jyrki, 2000. "Short-run and Long-run Elasticities for ASEAN Agricultural Exports to the European Union: an Error-correction Mechanism Approach," 2000 Conference, August 13-18, 2000, Berlin, Germany 197212, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Baiardi, Donatella & Bianchi, Carluccio & Lorenzini, Eleonora, 2015. "The price and income elasticities of the top clothing exporters: Evidence from a panel data analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 14-30.
    13. Tilak Abeysinghe & Keen Meng Choy, 2005. "Modelling Small Economy Exports : The Case of Singapore," Trade Working Papers 21980, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2007. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of India's Disaggregated Manufactured Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Aprroach," MPRA Paper 68589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Permani, Risti, 2013. "Optimal Export Tax Rates of Cocoa Beans: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(4), December.
    16. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi & Eleonora Lorenzini, 2014. "The price and income elasticities of the top clothing exporters: Evidence from a panel data analysis," DEM Working Papers Series 074, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    17. Wani, Mr. Nassir Ul Haq & Dhami, Dr. Jasdeep Kaur & Sidana, Dr. Neeru, 2016. "India's trade linkage with BRCS: An econometric study," MPRA Paper 81949, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2017.

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