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Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong Exports

Author

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  • Muscatelli, Vito Antonio
  • Srinivasan, T G
  • Vines, David

Abstract

This paper considers the issue of whether a small developing economy such as Hong Kong faces a perfectly elastic demand for its exports of manufactured goods. We construct a simultaneous demand and supply system which is estimated using Full Information Maximum Likelihood methods, and which allows us to clearly identify demand and supply factors in determining export volumes and prices. Our empirical findings differ from previous studies conducted with this data set in that they suggest that even a small dynamic newly industrialized economy such as Hong Kong may not face infinitely elastic demand for its manufactured goods. We also advance some reasons to explain why the `small country assumption' may not be applicable in the case of most industrialized economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, David, 1992. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong Exports," CEPR Discussion Papers 671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:671
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Bardaka, Ioanna C., 2010. "New trade theory, non-price competitiveness and export performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 217-228, January.
    2. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    3. Panagariya, Arvind & Shah, Shekhar & Mishra, Deepak, 2001. "Demand elasticities in international trade: are they really low?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 313-342, April.
    4. Prof Peter G. Warr & Fracnes J. Wollmer, 1996. "The International Demand for Thailand's Rice Exports," Trade and Development 96/10, Australian National University, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1220-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Menzies, Gordon & Vines, David, 2007. "Stiglitz Versus the IMF on the Asian Debt Crisis: An Intertemporal Model with Real Exchange Rate Overshooting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Peter G. Warr & Frances Wollmer, 1996. "The Demand For Ldc Exports Of Primary Commodities: The Case Of The Philippines," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(1), pages 37-49, April.
    8. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Exchange rate variability and the export demand for Malaysia's semiconductors: an empirical study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 695-706.
    9. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    10. Utku UTKULU & Dilek SEYMEN & Aydin ARI, "undated". "Export Supply and Trade Reform: The Turkish Evidence," EcoMod2004 330600144, EcoMod.
    11. Mody, Ashoka & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1997. "Is there persistence in the growth of manufactured exports? Evidence from newly industrializing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 447-470, August.
    12. Barros, Alexandre Rands & Amazonas, Analice, 1996. "Manufactured exports from Brazil: determinants and consequences," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 50(1), January.
    13. Baiardi, Donatella & Bianchi, Carluccio & Lorenzini, Eleonora, 2015. "The price and income elasticities of the top clothing exporters: Evidence from a panel data analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 14-30.
    14. Tilak Abeysinghe & Keen Meng Choy, 2005. "Modelling Small Economy Exports : The Case of Singapore," Trade Working Papers 21980, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Peter Warr, 2002. "Export taxes and income distribution: The Philippines coconut levy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(3), pages 437-458, September.
    16. Chris Allen & David Vines, 1993. "Should Clinton Cut the Deficit or is there a Global Paradox of Thrift?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 133-158, March.
    17. Nejib Hachicha, 2001. "Exports, Export Composition And Growth: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model For Tunisia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 101-120.
    18. Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2007. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of India's Disaggregated Manufactured Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Aprroach," MPRA Paper 68589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:pid:journl:v:55:y:2016:i:3:p:191-210 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Permani, Risti, 2013. "Optimal Export Tax Rates of Cocoa Beans: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(4), December.
    21. Wani, Mr. Nassir Ul Haq & Dhami, Dr. Jasdeep Kaur & Sidana, Dr. Neeru, 2016. "India's trade linkage with BRCS: An econometric study," MPRA Paper 81949, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Supply Elasticities; Error-Correction Models; Hong Kong;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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