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Is there persistence in the growth of manufactured exports? Evidence from newly industrializing countries

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  • Mody, Ashoka
  • Yilmaz, Kamil

Abstract

Price and income elasticities estimated from a country's export demand function are used both to predict and to prescribe effective export strategies. But the focus on elasticities has led to the neglect of an important empirical regularity: a strong persistencein the growth rate of a country's exports. The authors shift the spotlight to this phenomenon and describe the degree and pattern of persistence. They find that a country's exports are influenced not only by the elasticities, but also by the quality of its transactional infrastructure (proxied by the penetration of telecommunications). More important, when world income rises, exports rise relatively uniformly for different country groups. As world income contracts, the decline in exports is greater and is especially sharp for certain countries. The authors infer from this asymmetry in income elasticity of demand, and from the observed persistence of exports, that long-term buyer supplier relationships lead to the creation of"insiders"and"outsiders"in the world market for manufactured goods, a condition that tends to perpetuate itself.
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  • Mody, Ashoka & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1997. "Is there persistence in the growth of manufactured exports? Evidence from newly industrializing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 447-470, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:53:y:1997:i:2:p:447-470
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    1. Landesmann, Michael & Snell, Andrew, 1989. "The Consequences of Mrs. Thatcher for U.K. Manufacturing Exports," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 1-27, March.
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    11. William Alterman, 1991. "Price Trends in U.S. Trade: New Data, New Insights," NBER Chapters,in: International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research, pages 109-143 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lall, Sanjaya, 1998. "Exports of Manufactures by Developing Countries: Emerging Patterns of Trade and Location," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 54-73, Summer.
    2. Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008. "Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
    3. Ashoka Mody & Kamil Yilmaz, 2002. "Imported Machinery for Export Competitiveness," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(1), pages 23-48, June.
    4. Mody, Ashoka, 1999. "Industrial policy after the East Asian crisis - from"outward orientation"to new internal capabilities?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2112, The World Bank.
    5. Sumru Altug & Fanny S. Demers & Michel Demers, 2004. "Tax Policy and Irreversible Investment," CDMA Working Paper Series 200404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    6. repec:spr:epolit:v:34:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40888-017-0076-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eva Samakovlis, 2003. "The Relationship between Waste Paper and Other Inputs in the Swedish Paper Industry," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 25(2), pages 191-212, June.
    8. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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