The Consequences Of Mrs Thatcher For Uk Manufacturing Exports
This article sets out to study whether the dramatic events that took place in the U.K. economy since 1979 can be shown to have had any effects on certain crucial parameters that determine the export performance of the U.K. manufacturing sector. A number of export models are examined over the post-1979 period and all reveal a certain amount of systematic parameter variation. In particular, estimates of the world income elasticity of demand for U.K. manufacturing exports show an upward drift. When this drift is explicitly modeled using a spline function approach to allow time varying parameters, the data do not reject the hypothesis that this income elasticity has risen from its traditional postwar value of around 0.7 to around unity in 1986. This model is applied to explain export performance of both aggregate U.K. manufacturing, as well as of individual manufacturing industries. Copyright 1989 by Royal Economic Society.
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