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Thirlwall's Law and the Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities

  • Erkin Bairam
  • Lawrence Ng
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    The aim of this paper is to examine the stability of income elasticities used in Thirlwall's law to approximate a country's long-term growth and to see empirically how non-constancy will affect these predictions. For this purpose, three countries - Canada, New Zealand and the UK - are analysed, using annual time series data from 1973 to 1995. These three countries were chosen on the basis of their contrasting trade patterns. The results obtained are different for each country but they still suggest the predictive power of one of the two specifications of Thirlwall's law is good.

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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 287-303

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:15:y:2001:i:3:p:287-303
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    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    2. Perron, P., 1987. "The Great Crash, the Oil Prices and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cahiers de recherche 8749, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "Reflections on the Concept of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 377-385, April.
    4. Landesmann, M. & Snell, A., 1988. "The Consequences Of Mrs Thatcher For Uk Manufacturing Exports," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 883, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Erkin I. Bairam, 1997. "Levels of Economic Development and Appropriate Specification of the Harrod Foreign-Trade Multiplier," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 337-344, April.
    6. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Hurn, A Stan, 1992. " Cointegration and Dynamic Time Series Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43.
    7. Stern, Robert M & Baum, Christopher F & Greene, Mark N, 1979. "Evidence on Structural Change in the Demand for Aggregate U.S. Imports and Exports," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 179-92, February.
    8. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
    9. John S. L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, April.
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