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Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: a panel data investigation

  • Gouvea, Raphael Rocha
  • Lima, Gilberto Tadeu

This paper contributes to the literature on balance-of-payments-constrained growth by providing an innovative empirical evaluation of a disaggregated version of the so-called Thirlwall's Law derived from a Pasinettian multisectoral framework. After estimating sectoral elasticities of exports and imports for a considerable panel dataset of 90 countries over the period 1965-1999, we have performed two empirical exercises. First, we grouped countries together by income level and evaluated a multisectoral balance-of-payments-constrained growth model by analyzing prediction errors and mean absolute deviations. Second, we carried out a regression validity test on the results. Our main findings give support to the validity of the multisectoral version of Thirlwall's Law, providing therefore further understanding of the structural determinants of the uneven international development and guidance for the design of growth-enhancing national structural policies.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29816.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29816
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  1. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232197, June.
  2. John S. L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, April.
  3. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
  5. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090,
  6. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  7. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
  8. Setterfield, Mark, 1997. "'History versus Equilibrium' and the Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 365-78, May.
  9. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  10. A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "Reflections on the Concept of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 377-385, April.
  11. Dimitris Christopoulos & EFthymios Tsionas, 2003. "A Reassessment Of Balance Of Payments Constrained Growth: Results From Panel Unit Root And Panel Cointegration Tests," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 39-54.
  12. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
  13. J.S.L. McCombie & Mark Roberts, 2002. "The Role of the Balance of Payments in Economic Growth," Chapters, in: The Economics of Demand-Led Growth, chapter 6 Edward Elgar.
  14. Arslan Razmi & Martin Rapetti & Peter Skott, 2009. "The Real Exchange Rate as an Instrument of Development Policy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  15. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
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