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Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview

In: Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth

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  • Anthony Philip Thirlwall

Abstract

Thiriwall’s 1979 balance of payments constrained growth model predicts that a country’s long-run growth of GDP can be approximated by the ratio of the growth of real exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports assuming negligible effects from real exchange rate movements.1 This chapter surveys developments of the model since then allowing for capital flows, interest payments on debt, terms of trade movements and disaggregation of the model by commodities and trading partners. Various tests of the model are discussed, and extensive lists of papers that have examined the model are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-137-02395-7_2
    DOI: 10.1057/9781137023957_2
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    Keywords

    Gross Domestic Product; Current Account; Real Exchange Rate; Gross Domestic Product Growth; Export Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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