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Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: Estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade

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  • Ziesemer, Thomas

    (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University)

Abstract

In an empirical, dynamic simultaneous equation model (DSEM) for Brazil with 22 equations and variables, we show that foreign income is a driver of economic growth besides semi-endogenous technical change. With a balance-of-payments constraint and endogenous terms of trade, the major mechanism is (i) world GDP driving exports, (ii) exports paying for imported capital goods, which (iii) enter a production function increasing output and the foreign-debt/GDP ratio and (iv) increase the endogenous labour force, and (v) slightly reduce human capital growth. Permanent increases of human capital increase the R&D/GDP ratio, labour-augmenting productivity, and GDP. A policy to increase the R&D/GDP ratio leads to more human capital, labour productivity and GDP levels. Both knowledge policies reduce the debt/GDP ratio. A lasting shock on the terms of trade reveals that there is no Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect. The results hold in the presence of endogenous terms of trade, foreign debt, net foreign income, and net current transfers from abroad, and non-Walrasian (dis-)equilibrium variables: inflation and changing inventories for the goods market, and unemployment in the labour market. Policy should strengthen the weak link from R&D to technical change and make education more attractive.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: Estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," MERIT Working Papers 2022-013, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2022013
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic simultaneous equation model; balance-of-payments; constrained growth; imported capital goods; foreign debt; human capital; R&D;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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