IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: The case of Mexico revisited

  • Blecker, Robert A.
  • Ibarra, Carlos A.

Previous studies have found that a tightening of the balance of payments (BP) constraint can explain the slowdown in Mexico's growth after its trade liberalization in the late 1980s. This paper develops a disaggregated model of the BP constraint with two types of exports (manufactures and primary commodities) and two types of imports (intermediate and final goods). Econometric estimates (including tests for structural breaks) show that the BP-equilibrium growth rate did not fall, but instead rose in the post-liberalization period, so this model cannot account for the country's growth slowdown. Instead, the analysis points to the need to consider the real exchange rate as well as internal obstacles and policies.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X13000192
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 33-47

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:33-47
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.
  2. Julio López G. & Alberto Cruz B., 2000. ""Thirlwall's Law" and beyond: The Latin American Experience," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 22(3), pages 477-495, April.
  3. Carlos Ibarra, 2010. "Exporting without growing: Investment, real currency appreciation, and export-led growth in Mexico," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 439-464.
  4. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile & Sebastián Rovira, 2010. "Structural change and the BOP-constraint: why did Latin America fail to converge?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 389-411, March.
  5. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Yongbok Jeon, 2009. "Balance-of-payment constrained growth: the case of China, 1979-2002," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 135-146.
  7. Penelope Pacheco-López & A.P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation in Mexico: Rhetoric and Reality," Studies in Economics 0403, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  8. Arslan Razmi, 2011. "Exploring the robustness of the balance of payments-constrained growth idea in a multiple good framework," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 545-567.
  9. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," NBER Working Papers 16580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Import elasticities and the external constraint in Mexico," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 363-377, September.
  11. repec:mes:postke:v:35:y:2012:i:1:p:65-78 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
  13. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
  14. A. P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Studies in Economics 1111, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  15. Arias, Javier & Azuara, Oliver & Bernal, Pedro & Heckman, James & Villarreal, Cajeme, 2010. "Policies to Promote Growth and Economic Efficiency in Mexico," MPRA Paper 20414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Ros, Jaime, 2009. "Development and Growth in the Mexican Economy: An Historical Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195371161, March.
  17. Blecker, Robert A., 2009. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
  18. Gallagher, Kevin P. & Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Porzecanski, Roberto, 2008. "The Dynamism of Mexican Exports: Lost in (Chinese) Translation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1365-1380, August.
  19. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
  20. Carlos Ibarra, 2011. "A note on intermediate imports and the BPCG model in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 357-368, November.
  21. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
  22. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
  23. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2012. "Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth: the Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 41791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
  25. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  26. Guerrero de Lizardi, Carlos, 2003. "Modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos. Evidencia para México, 1940-2000," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(278), pages 253-273, abril-jun.
  27. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2011. "Capital flows, real exchange rate, and growth constraints in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 653-668, November.
  28. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of India," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 655-687, July.
  29. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  30. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:33-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.