IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/wrkpap/wp_1074.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political Conflict, Green Capabilities, and Growth Patterns in a Kaleckian Small Open Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Eduardo Alatorre
  • Gabriel Porcile
  • Julia Juarez
  • Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid

Abstract

The paper presents a Kaleckian extended model exploring sustainable development, defined as growth that is economically stable, socially inclusive, and environmentally respectful. The model links CO2 emission trends with public investments in green capabilities, represented by the share of renewables in total energy supply. It incorporates three key actors: green capitalists (G), brown capitalists (B), and workers (R), whose alliances influence taxes, social expenditure, and green capabilities investments. Three political coalitions are formed: green-red (GR), green-brown (GB), and red-brown (RB). The GR coalition promotes sustainable and inclusive growth but may face trade imbalances depending on public investment's ability to boost non-price competitiveness. The GB alliance yields sustainable but non-inclusive growth with a high long-term deficit. The RB coalition results in environmentally unsustainable outcomes but may produce stable growth with income redistribution during high commodity export demand. Applying the model to Mexico highlights fiscal space challenges for public investment and income redistribution amidst emissions reduction targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Eduardo Alatorre & Gabriel Porcile & Julia Juarez & Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 2024. "Political Conflict, Green Capabilities, and Growth Patterns in a Kaleckian Small Open Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_1074, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.levyinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/wp_1074.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    2. Thomas Palley, 2003. "Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An application to the balance of payments constrained growth model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 75-84.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile, 2014. "Technology, structural change and BOP-constrained growth: a structuralist toolbox," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(1), pages 215-237.
    5. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.
    6. Arslan Razmi, 2011. "Exploring the robustness of the balance of payments-constrained growth idea in a multiple good framework," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(3), pages 545-567.
    7. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    8. Dillon Alleyne & Alfred A. Francis, 2008. "Balance Of Payments‐Constrained Growth In Developing Countries: A Theoretical Perspective," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 189-202, May.
    9. Bacha, Edmar L., 1990. "A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 279-296, April.
    10. Ros, Jaime, 2013. "Rethinking Economic Development, Growth, and Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199684816.
    11. A. P. Thirlwall, 2015. "A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Palgrave Studies in the History of Economic Thought, in: Essays on Keynesian and Kaldorian Economics, chapter 12, pages 286-301, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. André Mellini & Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva, 2022. "The twin deficit theory in a dynamic consistent stock-flow model for an open economy," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 42(3), pages 761-784.
    13. Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro & John S.L. McCombie & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017. "A reconciliation proposal of demand-driven growth models in open economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 226-244, May.
    14. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2002. "Thirlwall’s Law and Uneven Development," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 367-390, March.
    15. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Thirlwall’s law, uneven development, and income distribution," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 592-611, July.
    16. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, December.
    17. Gabriel Porcile & José Eduardo Alatorre & Martín Cherkasky & Camila Gramkow & João Romero, 2023. "New directions in Latin American Structuralism: a three-gap model of sustainable development," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 266-281, November.
    18. Cimoli, Mario & Pereima, João Basilio & Porcile, Gabriel, 2019. "A technology gap interpretation of growth paths in Asia and Latin America," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 125-136.
    19. Andrew B. Trigg, 2020. "Thirlwall’s Law and uneven development under Global Value Chains: a multi-country input–output approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    20. Guarini, Giulio & Porcile, Gabriel, 2016. "Sustainability in a post-Keynesian growth model for an open economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 14-22.
    21. Solimano,Andres R., 1990. "Macroeconomic constraints for medium term growth and distribution : a model for Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 400, The World Bank.
    22. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    23. Ibarra, Carlos A. & Ros, Jaime, 2019. "The decline of the labor income share in Mexico, 1990–2015," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 570-584.
    24. Dawn Richards Elliott & Rupert Rhodd, 1999. "Explaining growth rate differences in highly indebted countries: an extension to Thirlwall and Hussain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1145-1148.
    25. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    26. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
    27. Danilo Spinola, 2021. "The La Marca model revisited: Structuralist goodwin cycles with evolutionary supply side and balance of payments constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 189-212, February.
    28. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    29. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    30. Samaniego, José Luis & Sánchez, Jeannette & Alatorre, José Eduardo, 2022. "Medio ambiente y desarrollo en un contexto centro-periferia," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 89(353), pages 229-256, enero-mar.
    31. Juan Carlos Moreno‐Brid, 2003. "Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance‐of‐Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 346-365, May.
    32. Althouse, Jeffrey & Guarini, Giulio & Gabriel Porcile, Jose, 2020. "Ecological macroeconomics in the open economy: Sustainability, unequal exchange and policy coordination in a center-periphery model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    2. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Robert A. Blecker, 2025. "Conflict and cooperation in international trade: post-Keynesian perspectives," FMM Working Paper 119-2025, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208, June.
    5. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    6. Marwil J. Dávila‐Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2024. "Thirlwall's law: Binding constraint or ‘centre‐of‐gravity’?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 52-82, February.
    7. Musa Esuwa Shingil & Huseyin Ozdeser & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2022. "Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    8. Bölükbaşı, Halime & Civcir, Irfan, 2024. "Imported Inputs, Balance of Payments and Economic Growth: a model and a test on the case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-332.
    9. Yohanna Panshak & Irfan Civcir & Hüseyin Ozdeser, 2019. "Technology Gap and the Role of National Innovation System in a Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    10. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    11. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    12. Valdecantos, Sebastian, 2025. "The green transition dilemma: The impossible (?) quest for prosperity of South American economies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    13. Ganguly, Arpan & Spinola, Danilo, 2024. "Growth and distribution regimes under global value chains: Diversification, integration, and uneven development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 634-649.
    14. Gustavo Britto & João Prates Romero, 2011. "Modelos kaldorianos de crescimento e suas extensões contemporâneas," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 449, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, revised Jul 2013.
    15. Nishi, Hiroshi, 2016. "A multi-sectoral balance-of-payments-constrained growth model with sectoral heterogeneity," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 31-45.
    16. Civcir, Irfan & Panshak, Yohanna & Ozdeser, Huseyin, 2021. "A multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth approach with intermediate imports: The case of Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 240-250.
    17. Önder Nomaler & Danilo Spinola & Bart Verspagen, 2024. "Demand‐led industrialisation policy in a dual‐sector small open economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(3), pages 339-376, July.
    18. Woocheol Lee, 2021. "Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 631-653, December.
    19. Jeanete Dias & Micaela Antunes, 2015. "Applying Thirlwall’s Law to the Portuguese economy: a sectoral analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2015-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    20. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lindsey Carter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.levyinstitute.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.