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Modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos. Evidencia para México, 1940-2000

Listed author(s):
  • Guerrero de Lizardi, Carlos

    (Instituto Tecnológico y Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México.)

Using a stochastic specification that emphasises the role of the ratio of exports/imports income elasticities, this paper applies the balance-of-payments constraint model to the analysis of Mexico’s economic from 1940 to 2000. The econometric results show that while the value of this ratio was 1.74 from 1940 to 1981, it was just only 0.94 from 1982 to 2000. Thus, it is expected that the proportion between Mexican and rest of the world –particularly U.S. - economic growth rate will reduce during the next few years.// Mediante una especificación estocástica que destaca el papel de las elasticidades ingreso de las exportaciones e importaciones, este artículo aplica el modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos a México entre 1940 y 2000. Los resultados de la modelación econométrica indican que, mientras que entre 1940 y 1981 la relación de las elasticidades ingreso de las exportaciones e importaciones ascendió a 1.74, entre 1982 y 2000 fue sólo 0.94. Así entonces, cabe esperar que la proporción entre el crecimiento económico de México y el resto del mundo particularmente de los Estados Unidos- disminuirá en los próximos años.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXX (2) (2003)
Issue (Month): 278 (abril-junio)
Pages: 253-273

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:70:y:2003:i:278:p:253-273
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