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Modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos. Evidencia para México, 1940-2000


  • Guerrero de Lizardi, Carlos

    (Instituto Tecnológico y Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México.)


Using a stochastic specification that emphasises the role of the ratio of exports/imports income elasticities, this paper applies the balance-of-payments constraint model to the analysis of Mexico’s economic from 1940 to 2000. The econometric results show that while the value of this ratio was 1.74 from 1940 to 1981, it was just only 0.94 from 1982 to 2000. Thus, it is expected that the proportion between Mexican and rest of the world –particularly U.S. - economic growth rate will reduce during the next few years.// Mediante una especificación estocástica que destaca el papel de las elasticidades ingreso de las exportaciones e importaciones, este artículo aplica el modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos a México entre 1940 y 2000. Los resultados de la modelación econométrica indican que, mientras que entre 1940 y 1981 la relación de las elasticidades ingreso de las exportaciones e importaciones ascendió a 1.74, entre 1982 y 2000 fue sólo 0.94. Así entonces, cabe esperar que la proporción entre el crecimiento económico de México y el resto del mundo particularmente de los Estados Unidos- disminuirá en los próximos años.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerrero de Lizardi, Carlos, 2003. "Modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos. Evidencia para México, 1940-2000," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(278), pages 253-273, abril-jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:70:y:2003:i:278:p:253-273

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    Cited by:

    1. Blecker, Robert A. & Ibarra, Carlos A., 2013. "Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: The case of Mexico revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-47.
    2. Isaac, Sánchez Juárez, 2011. "Una interpretación sobre el bajo crecimiento económico en México
      [One interpretation of the low economic growth in Mexico]
      ," MPRA Paper 38101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carlos A. Ibarra & Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Structural change, the real exchange rate and the balance of payments in Mexico, 1960–2012," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 507-539.
    4. Ibarra, Carlos Alberto, 2011. "Maquila, currency misalignment and export-led growth in Mexico," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.


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