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Structural Change, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Balance of Payments in Mexico, 1960-2012

  • Robert Blecker

This paper estimates a structural model of the balance of payments, with disaggregated exports (manufactured and non-manufactured) and imports (final and intermediate goods), and a reduced form model of the trade balance for the Mexican economy. The analysis identifies several structural breaks, implying a division of the entire sample period into five phases. The results indicate that a tightening of the balance-of-payments constraint may account for the slowdown in Mexico’s growth only during certain subperiods of the post-liberalization era, and that the impact of real exchange rate changes on the trade balance has diminished as a result of the increasing integration of export industries into global supply chains. The results also suggest an important asymmetry, whereby a country can grow below the rate consistent with balance-of-payments equilibrium when other constraints are more binding, but cannot sustain growth above that rate. JEL classification: F43, F14, E12, O24

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File URL: http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/research/upload/2014-01.pdf
File Function: First version, 2014
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Paper provided by American University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2014-01.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2014-01
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/

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  1. Nat Tharnpanich & John S. L. McCombie, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth, structural change, and the Thai economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 569-598, July.
  2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
  3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty, 2009. "Trade Liberalisation, the Peso, and Mexico's Commodity Trade Flows with the United States," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 693-725.
  4. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.
  5. Guerrero de Lizardi, Carlos, 2003. "Modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos. Evidencia para México, 1940-2000," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(278), pages 253-273, abril-jun.
  6. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of India," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 655-687, July.
  7. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
  8. Blecker, Robert A. & Ibarra, Carlos A., 2013. "Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: The case of Mexico revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-47.
  9. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Capital Flows and Private Investment in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(3, Cierre), pages 65-99.
  10. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  11. Blecker, Robert A., 2009. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
  12. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
  13. Gallagher, Kevin P. & Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Porzecanski, Roberto, 2008. "The Dynamism of Mexican Exports: Lost in (Chinese) Translation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1365-1380, August.
  14. Carlos Ibarra, 2010. "Exporting without growing: Investment, real currency appreciation, and export-led growth in Mexico," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 439-464.
  15. Carlos Ibarra, 2011. "A note on intermediate imports and the BPCG model in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 357-368, November.
  16. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2011. "Capital flows, real exchange rate, and growth constraints in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 653-668, November.
  17. Arias, Javier & Azuara, Oliver & Bernal, Pedro & Heckman, James & Villarreal, Cajeme, 2010. "Policies to Promote Growth and Economic Efficiency in Mexico," MPRA Paper 20414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  19. Penelope Pacheco-López & A.P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation in Mexico: Rhetoric and Reality," Studies in Economics 0403, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  20. Ros, Jaime, 2013. "Rethinking Economic Development, Growth, and Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199684816, March.
  21. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  22. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
  23. Christine A. McDaniel & Laurie-Ann Agama, 2003. "The NAFTA Preference and US-Mexico Trade: Aggregate-Level Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(7), pages 939-955, 07.
  24. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," NBER Working Papers 16580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. repec:emc:ecomex:v:cierredeepoca(i):y:2013:p:65-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
  27. Arslan Razmi, 2011. "Exploring the robustness of the balance of payments-constrained growth idea in a multiple good framework," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 545-567.
  28. Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Ros, Jaime, 2009. "Development and Growth in the Mexican Economy: An Historical Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195371161, March.
  29. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
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