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External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007

  • Blecker, Robert A.

Summary This article finds that shocks to net financial inflows, world oil prices, the US growth rate, and the lagged real exchange rate explain most of the fluctuations in Mexico's annual growth since 1979. The article also estimates how the effects of these external constraints have changed since Mexico's liberalization policies of the late 1980s and the formation of NAFTA in 1994. Estimates of an investment function and other tests show that growth drives investment but not conversely, in the short run. Investment is driven mainly by oil prices and the accelerator effect; foreign direct investment has no significant impact.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC6-4VBM4H0-2/2/5e7a36f61169791089e7ec62e2b42fad
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Pages: 1274-1284

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Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:37:y:2009:i:7:p:1274-1284
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

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  1. Gallagher, Kevin P. & Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Porzecanski, Roberto, 2008. "The Dynamism of Mexican Exports: Lost in (Chinese) Translation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1365-1380, August.
  2. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
  3. Pennelope Pacheco-Lopez & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade liberalisation in Mexico: rhetoric and reality," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 141-167.
  4. Çigdem Akin & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Changing Nature of North-South Linkages; Stylized Facts and Explanations," IMF Working Papers 07/280, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
  6. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1996. "Investment, pass-through, and exchange rates: a cross-country comparison," Staff Reports 14, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Robert A. Blecker, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 491-517.
  8. Robert S. Chirinko, 1993. "Business fixed investment spending: a critical survey of modeling strategies, empirical results, and policy implications," Research Working Paper 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
  10. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2005. "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 332, May.
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  12. Alicia Puyana, 2006. "Mexican Oil Policy and Energy Security Within NAFTA," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 72-97, June.
  13. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  14. Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar, 2004. "Bilateral Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico and United States Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 2004-05, Banco de México.
  15. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  16. Loría, Eduardo & de Jesús, Leobardo, 2007. "Los acervos de capital de México. Una estimación, 1980.I-2004.IV," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(294), pages 475-485, abril-jun.
  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  18. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  19. De Leon, Ernesto Zedillo Ponce, 1986. "Mexico's recent balance-of-payments experience and prospects for growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 963-991, August.
  20. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
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