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Wage-led Versus Profit-led Demand Regimes: The Long and Short of It

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  • Robert A. Blecker

Abstract

Empirical studies have found mixed results regarding whether various countries have wage-led or profit-led demand regimes based on a variety of econometric methodologies. However, most of the previous literature has paid too little attention to the time dimension of this distinction. This paper argues that demand is more likely to be profit led (or, at least, more weakly wage led) in the short run and more likely to be wage led (or more strongly wage led) in the long run, because the positive effects of higher profits (lower labor costs) on investment and net exports are likely to be strongest in the short run, while the positive effects of a higher wage share on consumption are likely to be stronger in the long run. In fact, most of the studies that have found profit-led results have used methodologies that (either intentionally or unintentionally) emphasize short-run cyclical relationships. An examination of correlations in the raw data for the US economy over different time horizons illustrates the plausibility of output and growth being profit led in the short run and wage led in the long run.

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  • Robert A. Blecker, 2015. "Wage-led Versus Profit-led Demand Regimes: The Long and Short of It," Working Papers 2015-05, American University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2015-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Burle Gonçalves, 2018. "Distribuição De Renda E Demanda Agregada No Brasil(1995-2015): Uma Análise De Extensões Aos Modelos Neo-Kaleckianos Pelo Método Var," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 80, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    3. repec:col:000093:016015 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:voj:journl:v:64:y:2017:i:2:p:125-138 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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