IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/wrkpap/wp_846.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Secular Stagnation or Stagnation Policy? Steindl after Summers

Author

Listed:
  • Eckhard Hein

Abstract

The current debate on secular stagnation is suffering from some vagueness and several shortcomings. The same is true for the economic policy implications. Therefore, we provide an alternative view on stagnation tendencies based on Josef Steindl's contributions. In particular, Steindl (1952) can be viewed as a pioneering work in the area of stagnation in modern capitalism. We hold that this work is not prone to the problems detected in the current debate on secular stagnation: It does not rely on the dubious notion of an equilibrium real interest rate as the equilibrating force of saving and investment at full employment levels, in principle, with the adjustment process currently blocked by the unfeasibility of a very low or even negative equilibrium rate. It is based on the notion that modern capitalist economies are facing aggregate demand constraints, and that saving adjusts to investment through income growth and changes in capacity utilization in the long run. It allows for potential growth to become endogenous to actual demand-driven growth. And it seriously considers the role of institutions and power relationships for long-run growth--and for stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Eckhard Hein, 2015. "Secular Stagnation or Stagnation Policy? Steindl after Summers," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_846, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_846.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2012. "Finance-dominated capitalism in crisis—the case for a global Keynesian New Deal," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 187-213.
    3. Lavoie, Marc, 1995. "The Kaleckian Model of Growth and Distribution and Its Neo-Ricardian and Neo-Marxian Critiques," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 19(6), pages 789-818, December.
    4. Marc Lavoie, 1996. "Traverse, Hysteresis, and Normal Rates of Capacity Utilization in Kaleckian Models of Growth and Distribution," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 113-147, December.
    5. van Treeck, Till. & Sturn, Simon., 2012. "Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? : A survey of current debates," ILO Working Papers 994709343402676, International Labour Organization.
    6. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2002. "The Economics of Demand-Led Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1864.
    7. Joan Robinson, 1962. "Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-00626-7, December.
    8. Alois Guger & Markus Marterbauer & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2006. "Growth Policy In The Spirit Of Steindl And Kalecki," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 428-442, July.
    9. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12814.
    10. Mariana Mazzucato & Caetano C.R. Penna, 2016. "Beyond market failures: the market creating and shaping roles of state investment banks," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 305-326, October.
    11. Josef Steindl, 1990. "Ideas and Concepts of Long Run Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Economic Papers 1941–88, chapter 10, pages 127-138, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Peter Skott, 2012. "Theoretical And Empirical Shortcomings Of The Kaleckian Investment Function," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 109-138, February.
    13. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2015. "Rising inequality as a cause of the present crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(3), pages 935-958.
    14. Hiroaki Sasaki & Shinya Fujita, 2012. "The Importance Of The Retention Ratio In A Kaleckian Model With Debt Accumulation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 417-428, July.
    15. Marc Lavoie, 1995. "Interest Rates In Post-Keynesian Models Of Growth And Distribution," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 146-177, June.
    16. Eckhard Hein, 2012. ""Financialization," distribution, capital accumulation, and productivity growth in a post-Kaleckian model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 475-496.
    17. repec:ilo:ilowps:470934 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Eckhard Hein, 2013. "On The Importance Of The Retention Ratio In A Kaleckian Distribution And Growth Model With Debt Accumulation—A Comment On Sasaki And Fujita (2012)," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 186-196, February.
    19. Eckhard Hein, 2010. "Shareholder Value Orientation, Distribution And Growth—Short‐ And Medium‐Run Effects In A Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 302-332, May.
    20. Palley,Thomas I., 2013. "From Financial Crisis to Stagnation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107612464, October.
    21. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    22. Eckhard Hein & Marc Lavoie & Till van Treeck, 2012. "Harrodian Instability And The ‘Normal Rate’ Of Capacity Utilization In Kaleckian Models Of Distribution And Growth—A Survey," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 139-169, February.
    23. Steindl, Josef, 1979. "Stagnation Theory and Stagnation Policy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14, March.
    24. Marc Lavoie & Stockhammer Engelbert, 2013. "Wage-Led Growth: An Equitable Strategy for Economic Recovery," Post-Print hal-01343664, HAL.
    25. Hein, Eckhard & Dodig, Nina, 2014. "Financialisation, distribution, growth and crises: Long-run tendencies," IPE Working Papers 35/2014, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    26. repec:ilo:ilowps:470932 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Richard C. Koo, 2013. "Balance sheet recession as the ‘other half’ of macroeconomics," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 136-157.
    28. Josef Steindl, 1990. "Stagnation Theory and Stagnation Policy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Economic Papers 1941–88, chapter 9, pages 107-126, Palgrave Macmillan.
    29. Engelbert Stockhammer & Özlem Onaran, 2012. "Rethinking wage policy in the face of the Euro crisis. Implications of the wage-led demand regime," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 191-203, September.
    30. Thomas Dallery & Till van Treeck, 2011. "Conflicting Claims and Equilibrium Adjustment Processes in a Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 189-211, April.
    31. Nina Shapiro, 2012. "Josef Steindl: An Economist of His Times," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 65(261), pages 167-187.
    32. Harcourt,G. C., 1972. "Some Cambridge Controversies in the Theory of Capital," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521096720, October.
    33. Till van Treeck & Thomas Dallery, 2008. "Conflicting claims and equilibrium adjustment processes in a stock-flow consistent macro model," IMK Working Paper 09-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    34. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    35. Peter Flaschel & Peter Skott, 2006. "Steindlian Models Of Growth And Stagnation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 303-338, July.
    36. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism – and its Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14931.
    37. Josef Steindl, 1990. "Distribution and Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Economic Papers 1941–88, chapter 12, pages 149-165, Palgrave Macmillan.
    38. Anwar Shaikh, 2009. "Economic Policy In A Growth Context: A Classical Synthesis Of Keynes And Harrod," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 455-494, July.
    39. Peter Skott, 2010. "Growth, Instability and Cycles: Harrodian and Kaleckian Models of Accumulation and Income Distribution," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    40. Engelbert Stockhammer & Ozlem Onaran, 2013. "Wage-led growth: theory, evidence, policy," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 61-78, January.
    41. Hein, Eckhard, & Mundt, Matthias., 2012. "Financialisation and the requirements and potentials for wage-led recovery : a review focussing on the G20," ILO Working Papers 994709323402676, International Labour Organization.
    42. Marc Lavoie, 1992. "Foundations of Post-Keynesian Economic Analysis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 275.
    43. Eckhard Hein & Marc Lavoie & Till van Treeck, 2011. "Some instability puzzles in Kaleckian models of growth and distribution: a critical survey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(3), pages 587-612.
    44. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Nina Shapiro, 2012. "Josef Steindl: An Economist of His Times," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 65(260), pages 293-315.
    46. Robert A. Blecker, 2002. "Distribution, Demand and Growth in Neo-Kaleckian Macro-Models," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), The Economics of Demand-Led Growth, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    47. Eckhard Hein, 2008. "On the (In-)stability and the Endogeneity of the Normal Rate of Capacity Utilization in a Post-Keynesian/Kaleckian ‘Monetary’ Distribution and Growth Model," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Money, Distribution Conflict and Capital Accumulation, chapter 17, pages 153-167, Palgrave Macmillan.
    48. Eckhard Hein, 2014. "Distribution and Growth after Keynes," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15903.
    49. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    50. Eckhard Hein & Daniel Detzer & Nina Dodig (ed.), 2015. "The Demise of Finance-dominated Capitalism," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16281.
    51. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 1995. "Internal Finance And Monopoly Power In Capitalist Economies: A Reformulation Of Steindl'S Growth Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 16-34, February.
    52. Nicholas Kaldor, 1961. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth," International Economic Association Series, in: D. C. Hague (ed.), The Theory of Capital, chapter 0, pages 177-222, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    2. Eckhard Hein, 2018. "Stagnation policy in the Eurozone and economic policy alternatives: A Steindlian/neo-Kaleckian perspective," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 44(3), pages 315-348.
    3. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Stagnation policy in the Eurozone and economic policy alternatives," FMM Working Paper 05-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Hein, Eckhard, 2018. "Inequality and growth: Marxian and post-Keynesian/Kaleckian perspectives on distribution and growth regimes before and after the Great Recession," IPE Working Papers 96/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    5. Eckhard Hein, 2019. "Harrodian instability in Kaleckian models and Steindlian solutions," FMM Working Paper 46-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Hein, Eckhard, 2017. "Financialisation and tendencies towards stagnation: The role of macroeconomic regime changes in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis 2007-9," IPE Working Papers 90/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    7. Eckhard Hein & Nina Dodig, 2014. "Financialisation, distribution, growth and crises – long-run tendencies," Working papers wpaper23, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    8. Hein, Eckhard, 2016. "The Bhaduri/Marglin post-Kaleckian model in the history of distribution and growth theories: An assessment by means of model closures," IPE Working Papers 66/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    9. Hein, Eckhard, 2016. "Causes and consequences of the financial crisis and the implications for a more resilient financial and economic system," IPE Working Papers 61/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    10. Eckhard Hein, 2015. "Causes and Consequences of the Financial Crisis and the Implications for a More Resilient Financial and Economic System: Synthesis of FESSUD Work Package 3," Working papers wpaper128, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    11. Schoder, Christian, 2014. "Instability, stationary utilization and effective demand: A structuralist model of endogenous cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 10-29.
    12. Christian Schoder, 2015. "Methodological, internal and ontological inconsistencies in the conventional micro-foundation of post-Keynesian theory," Working Papers 1518, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. Mark Setterfield & Joana David Avritzer, 2020. "Hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization: A behavioral explanation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 898-919, November.
    14. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2012. "Is the long-run equilibrium wage-led or profit-led? A Kaleckian approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 231-244.
    15. Hein, Eckhard, 2011. "Distribution, ‘Financialisation’ and the Financial and Economic Crisis – Implications for Post-crisis Economic Policies," MPRA Paper 31180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Christian Schoder, 2012. "Instability, stationary utilization and effective demand: A synthesis of Harrodian and Kaleckian growth theory," IMK Working Paper 104-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    17. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    18. Nina Dodig & Eckhard Hein & Daniel Detzer, 2016. "Financialisation and the financial and economic crises: theoretical framework and empirical analysis for 15 countries," Chapters, in: Eckhard Hein & Daniel Detzer & Nina Dodig (ed.), Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises, chapter 1, pages 1-41, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Mark Setterfield, 2019. "Long-run variation in capacity utilization in the presence of a fixed normal rate," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(2), pages 443-463.
    20. Eckhard Hein & Marc Lavoie & Till van Treeck, 2011. "Some instability puzzles in Kaleckian models of growth and distribution: a critical survey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(3), pages 587-612.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular Stagnation; Stagnation Policy; Distribution and Growth; Steindl;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elizabeth Dunn (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.levyinstitute.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.