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The Neo-Goodwinian model, reconsidered

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  • Michael Cauvel

Abstract

This paper estimates the relationship between aggregate demand and the functional distribution of income in the U.S. economy using a series of aggregative VAR models. Like most previous aggregative studies, it finds evidence of Goodwin cycle effects - i.e. profit-led demand and a profit-squeeze effect - for the U.S. economy in baseline estimates using assumptions traditionally used in the aggregative literature. However, the results of other specifications suggest that these observed Goodwin cycle effects likely reflect a misinterpretation of procyclical variation in labor productivity - one of the main components of the wage share. When correcting for the cyclical effects of demand on productivity, the results differ dramatically; estimates are indicative of wage-led demand, and the effects of demand on distribution are mixed or insignificant. These findings suggest that evidence of Goodwin cycle effects is likely the result of biased estimates. Instead, it appears that the short-run relationship between the wage share and demand should be viewed as a combination of wage-led demand and procyclical productivity effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The Neo-Goodwinian model, reconsidered," FMM Working Paper 47-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:fmmpap:47-2019
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    2. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    3. Tonni, Lorenzo, 2023. "Business cycle and factor income shares: a VAR sign restrictions approach," MPRA Paper 116527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cauvel, Michael & Pacitti, Aaron, 2022. "Bargaining power, structural change, and the falling U.S. labor share," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 512-530.
    5. Tonni, Lorenzo, 2022. "Business cycle and factor income shares: a VAR sign restriction approach," MPRA Paper 114586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Marcio Santetti, Michalis Nikiforos, Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "Growth, cycles, and residential investment," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2022_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Functional distribution of income; neo-Kaleckian model; wage-led and profit-led demand regimes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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