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Labor share and growth in the long run

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  • McAdam, Peter
  • Bridji, Slim
  • Charpe, Matthieu

Abstract

This paper establishes some stylized facts of the long run relationship between growth and labor shares using historical data for the United States (1898-2010), the United Kingdom (1856-2010), and France (1896-2010). Performing individual country time-frequency analysis, we demonstrate the existence of long-term cycles in labor share of thirty to fifty years explaining a major part of the variance in the data. Further, the impact of labor share on growth changes sign with the frequency considered from negative at high frequencies to positive at low frequencies. Finally, the positive coefficient associated with the labor share at low frequencies increases over time. JEL Classification: E24, E25, N1

Suggested Citation

  • McAdam, Peter & Bridji, Slim & Charpe, Matthieu, 2019. "Labor share and growth in the long run," Working Paper Series 2251, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192251
    Note: 50336
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    7. A Heise, 2020. "Wage-led and profit-led regime research – promising scientific research programme or scientific cul-de-sac?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(2), pages 31-49, September.
    8. Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    9. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    10. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2022. "Technological paradigms, labour creation and destruction in a multi-sector agent-based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    11. Jacopo Staccioli & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "Back to the past: the historical roots of labor-saving automation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 27-57, March.
    12. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Whatever Happened to the ‘Goodwin Pattern’? Profit Squeeze Dynamics in the Modern American Labour Market," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 263-286, January.
    13. Anatolijs Prohorovs & Julija Bistrova, 2022. "Labour Share Convergence in the European Union," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, August.
    14. Sebastian Zalas & Hubert Drążkowski, 2023. "The Evolution of the Labour Share in Poland: New Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 13-33.
    15. Giovanni Federico & Alessandro Nuvolari & Michelangelo Vasta, 2023. "Inequality in Pre‐Industrial Europe (1260–1850): New Evidence From the Labor Share," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 347-375, June.
    16. Robert A. Blecker & Mark Setterfield, 2020. "On multi-sector and multi-technique models, production functions and Goodwin cycles: a reply to Libman," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 295-306, November.
    17. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    18. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The neo-Goodwinian model reconsidered," Working Papers PKWP1915, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    19. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The Neo-Goodwinian model, reconsidered," FMM Working Paper 47-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    21. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Andre M. Marques, 2022. "Demand and Distribution in a Dynamic Spatial Panel Model for the United States: Evidence from State-Level Data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 05 Oct 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth; income distribution; labor share; wavelet analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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