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Endogenous Labor Share Cycles: Theory and Evidence

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  • Jakub Growiec
  • Peter McAdam
  • Jakub Muck

Abstract

Based on long US time series we document a range of empirical properties of the labor's share of GDP. We identify its substantial medium-to-long run, pro-cylical swings and show that most of its variance lies beyond business-cycle frequencies. We explore the extent to which these empirical regularities can be explained by a calibrated micro-founded, nonlinear growth model with normalized CES technology and endogenous labor- and capital augmenting technical change driven by purposeful directed R&D investments. We demonstrate that dynamic macroeconomic trade-offs created by arrivals of both types of new technologies can lead to prolonged swings in the labor share (and other model variables) due to oscillatory convergence to the balanced growth path as well as emergence of limit cycles via Hopf bifurcations. Both predictions are consistent with the empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Growiec & Peter McAdam & Jakub Muck, 2016. "Endogenous Labor Share Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2016-015, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2016015
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    Cited by:

    1. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 87207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yashiv, Eran, 2016. "Aggregate hiring and the value of jobs along the business cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86175, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Yashiv, Eran, 2016. "Aggregate Hiring and the Value of Jobs Along the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 11076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Brad Sturgill & Hernando Zuleta, 2017. "Variable factor shares and the index number problem: a generalization. Abstract Factor shares vary over time and across countries, so incorporating variable factor shares into growth and development a," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 30-37.
    5. Jakub Growiec & Jakub Muck, 2015. "Isoelastic Elasticity of Substitution Production Functions," Discussion Papers 15-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    6. Hernando Zuleta, 2015. "Getting Growth Accounting Right," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 013814, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    7. Brad Sturgill & Hernando Zuleta, 2016. "Variable Factor Shares and the Index Number Problem: A Generalization," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 015038, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    8. Andreas Irmen & Amer Tabakovic, 2016. "Factor Income Distribution and Endogenous Economic Growth - When Piketty meets Romer -," CREA Discussion Paper Series 16-18, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    9. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Ezra Oberfield & Thomas Sampson, 2017. "The Productivity Slowdown and the Declining Labor Share: A Neoclassical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 23853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jakub Growiec & Peter McAdam & Jakub Muck, 2018. "On the Optimal Labor Income Share," Working Papers 2018-031, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    11. repec:eee:dyncon:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:74-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "Econophysics Beyond General Equilibrium: the Business Cycle Model," Papers 1804.04721, arXiv.org.
    13. Growiec, Jakub & McAdam, Peter & Mućk, Jakub, 2018. "Endogenous labor share cycles: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 74-93.
    14. Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2017. "Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 88531, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    16. McAdam, Peter & Muck, Jakub & Growiec, Jakub, 2015. "Will the true labor share stand up?," Working Paper Series 1806, European Central Bank.
    17. La Torre, Davide & Marsiglio, Simone & Mendivil, Franklin & Privileggi, Fabio, 2016. "Fractal Attractors and Singular Invariant Measures in Two-Sector Growth Models with Random Factor Shares," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201620, University of Turin.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor income share; Endogenous cycles; Factor-augmenting endogenous technical change; R&D; CES; Normalization.;

    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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