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International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country

  • Correa-López, Mónica

    (Economic Research Department, BBVA Research, and Department of Economics, School of Social Sciences, The University of Manchester.)

  • de Blas, Beatriz

    ()

    (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

This paper documents stylized facts of international medium-term business cycles by exploring the pattern of comovement between a catching-up economy, Spain, and each of the obvious candidate countries to technological leadership of the 1950-2007 period, the U.S., France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. A remarkable feature of the international medium-term business cycle is the strong, positive lead displayed by the U.S. technology and terms of trade cycles over Spain's macroeconomic aggregates. The corresponding evidence when the counterpart to Spain is a large European economy is weaker, particularly in the case of Europe's medium-term technology cycles. Non-parametric tests results suggest that, over the medium-term cycle, a shift towards more economic integration may not necessarily be associated with increased international comovement.

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Paper provided by Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History) in its series Working Papers in Economic Theory with number 2011/09.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uam:wpaper:201109
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  1. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "International Business Cycles: What are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 90, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
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  4. Diego Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2014. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 209-45, October.
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  7. AMBLER, Steve & CARDIA, Emanuela & ZIMMERMANN, Christian, 2000. "International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model," Cahiers de recherche 2000-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
  9. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  11. Mario J. Crucini & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 14380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rosés, Joan R., 2009. "The Sources of Long-Run Growth in Spain, 1850-2000," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(04), pages 1063-1091, December.
  13. Robert Kollmann, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7630, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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