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Searching for the source of macroeconomic integration across advanced economies

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  • Uluc Aysun

    (University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL)

Abstract

This paper estimates a two-country open economy DSGE model by using U.S. and Euro Area data. The baseline model, where the two regions are linked only through the trade of goods and risk-free bonds, fails to replicate the high cross-regional macro-economic correlation in the data. I search for the determinants of this correlation by reconfiguring the model?s shock processes in two ways. First, I include shocks that symmetrically affect each region. Second I allow for the transmission of shocks between the two regions. While both of these changes considerably improve the model?s per-formance along the international dimension, common shocks appear to be the main drivers of cross-regional correlation. Under both speci?cations, comovements of variables are mostly determined by demand and ?nancial shocks. Productivity, cost-push and exchange rate shocks, by contrast, play a limited role.

Suggested Citation

  • Uluc Aysun, 2015. "Searching for the source of macroeconomic integration across advanced economies," Working Papers 2015-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:cfl:wpaper:2015-01
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    2. Matthias Burgert & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "A Global Economy Version of QUEST: Simulation Properties," European Economy - Discussion Papers 126, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Aysun, Uluc & Jeon, Kiyoung & Kabukcuoglu, Zeynep, 2018. "Is the credit channel alive? Firm-level evidence on the sensitivity of borrowing spreads to monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 305-319.
    4. Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 185-218.
    5. Alpanda, Sami & Aysun, Uluc, 2022. "Regulatory arbitrage and economic stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Uluc Aysun, 2023. "Technology diffusion and international business cycles," Working Papers 2023-02, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic integration; DSGE; Bayesian estimation; U.S.; Euro Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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