International business cycles and the dynamics of the current account
This paper analyses the transmission of productivity shocks across countries and how the responses of investment and the current account differ depending on the degree of propagation of the shocks. We explore both issues by estimating a structural model for Japan, the United States and Europe. We postulate, as an identifying assumption, that the propagation of shocks is proportional to trade. We find that there is a strong asymmetry in that shocks to the United States propagate quickly to the other two economies, while European and Japanese shocks have little impact on other countries' productivity. We find that productivity increases lead to domestic investment booms and current account deficits. Investment in other countries tends to react positively to productivity shocks, even when the shock is purely national. This second result contradicts the predictions of a standard open-economy model with perfect capital mobility where, in response to country-specific shocks, domestic and foreign investment should move in opposite directions. We also find quantitative differences among the three countries in the response of the current account. These differences are not related to the global or idiosyncratic nature of the shocks.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992.
"Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The S-Curve,"
NBER Working Papers
4242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Web interface for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "DOS executable for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989.
"International Business Cycles,"
7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987.
"International real business cycles,"
426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995.
"Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
- Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1993. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Acocount," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 31, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1993. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," International Finance Discussion Papers 443, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979.
"Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows,"
NBER Working Papers
0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tesar, L.L., 1988.
"Savings, Investment And International Capital Flows,"
RCER Working Papers
154, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tesar, Linda L., 1991. "Savings, investment and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 55-78, August.
- Tesar, L.L., 1988. "Savings, Investment And International Capital Flows," Papers 64, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986.
"Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 1692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:40:y:1996:i:2:p:361-387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.