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International Trade over the Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Remaining Puzzles

Using quarterly national accounts for 19 industrialized economies, the business cycle behavior of trade related aggregates and prices is assessed. Emphasis is put on the distinction between small, relatively open, and large, relatively closed, economies. Comparing those facts with the computational experiments of international real business cycle models, several puzzles are studied or uncovered. Finally, we determine which fatcs are crucial for international business cycle models, that is, in which direction current research should pursue. Nous étudions, pour 19 pays industrialisés, le comportement cyclique d'agrégats et de prix trimestriels liés au commerce international. La distinction entre les petits pays, plus ouverts, et les grands pays, relativement fermés au commerce extérieur, est mise en évidence. En comparant ces faits stylisés avec les prédictions de modèles internationaux du cycle réel, nous analysons plusieurs énigmes, dont certaines sont nouvelles. Finalement, nous déterminons quels faits stylisés sont cruciaux pour un modèle international du cycle, donc dans quelle direction la recherche doit s'orienter.

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Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 37.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1995
Date of revision: Aug 1997
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:37
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  12. Christian Zimmermann, 1995. "International Real Business Cycles among Heterogeneous Countries," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 38, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  13. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
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  22. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  23. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  24. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  25. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
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  27. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation," RCER Working Papers 224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  28. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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