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Country Size, Aggregate Fluctuations, and International Risk Sharing

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  • Allen C. Head

Abstract

Country size, measured by either population or gross domestic product (GDP), is shown to be negatively related to the variances of aggregate output, consumption and investment and positively related to the contemporaneous correlations of consumption and investment with output in a sample of fifty-six countries. These results, however, hold primarily for the high income countries of the sample. A subsample consisting of the twenty countries with the lowest per capita GDP exhibits a significant negative relationship only between investment volatility and country size- these empirical regularities are shown to be consistent with the implications of international risk sharing among counties of asymmetric sizes in an international real business cycle model. Shocks in relatively large countries constitute world-wide risk to a greater extent than do similar shocks in smaller countries. Thus foreign shocks have a greater impact on small countries, causing their aggregates to fluctuate more and their consumption and investment to be less highly correlated with domestic output.

Suggested Citation

  • Allen C. Head, 1995. "Country Size, Aggregate Fluctuations, and International Risk Sharing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4b), pages 1096-1119, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:28:y:1995:i:4b:p:1096-1119
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    Cited by:

    1. Eiriksson, Agust A., 2011. "The saving-investment correlation and origins of productivity shocks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 40-47, January.
    2. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi, 2011. "Growth Volatility and the Structure of the Economy," Discussion Papers 2011/117, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2004. "Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members," MNB Working Papers 2004/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2013. "The Determinants of Growth Rate Volatility in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/170, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Elizabeth Asiedu & Yi Jin & Anne Villamil, 2006. "Do lack of transparency and enforcement undermine international risk-sharing?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 123-140, March.
    7. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008297, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    8. Boris Podobnik & Davor Horvatic & Djuro Njavro & Mato Njavro & H. Eugene Stanley, 2012. "Scaling of Growth Rate Volatility for Six Macroeconomic Variables," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 6(2), June.
    9. Bruno S. Frey & Lasse Steiner, 2012. "Political Economy: Success or Failure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 6(3), September.
    10. Ho, Kin Yip & Tsui, Albert K.C., 2004. "Analysis of real GDP growth rates of greater China: An asymmetric conditional volatility approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 424-442.
    11. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    12. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1083-1132.
    13. Neaime Simon, 2005. "Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility in the MENA Region: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 59-83, December.
    14. Xavier Gabaix, 2004. "Power laws and the origins of aggregate fluctuations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 484, Econometric Society.
    15. Klaus Desmet, 2002. "Asymmetric Shocks, Risk Sharing, and the Latter Mundell," Working Papers 0222, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    16. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 250-257, July.
    17. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," Development Economics Working Papers 21823, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Nabil ALIMI, 2016. "The Effect Of Economic Freedom On Business Cycle Volatility: Case Of Developing Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 139-158.
    20. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    21. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2004. "Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban
      [Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-448.
    22. Christian Zimmermann, 1995. "International Trade over the Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Remaining Puzzles," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 37, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Aug 1997.
    23. Canning, D. & Amaral, L. A. N. & Lee, Y. & Meyer, M. & Stanley, H. E., 1998. "Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 335-341, September.
    24. Marco Terrones & Eswar S Prasad & Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund.

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