IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jau/wpaper/2017-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Eurace Open: An agent-based multi-country model

Author

Listed:
  • Marko Petrovic

    () (LEE and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Bulent Ozel

    () (LEE and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Andrea Teglio

    () (LEE and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Marco Raberto

    () (DIME-University of Genoa, Italy)

  • Silvano Cincotti

    () (DIME-University of Genoa, Italy)

Abstract

The global economic and financial crises, whose genesis is often associated with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, had a pervasive impact on all the leading economies in the world. The place where it might have been more disruptive has been the European Union (EU), which revealed a structural fragility and inadequacy to tackle some of the main challenges ahead. In this paper we mainly focus on migration challenges, further integrations of a monetary union, spatial inequality, and sovereign debt crisis. To address the relevant issues, we use a multi-country model that is an extension of the Eurace agent-based model. We design a flexible modeling framework that can host many different countries. In this paper the model hosts four countries. It is designed as a monetary union of two countries with international labor market, international trade, and international financial market, and another two independent countries that are always identical to the union members and serve as control states. We found that when countries are identical it is always beneficial to join the union, however an excess of workers mobility can weaken the performance of the union and even create persistent inequality between countries. Moreover, the monetary policy of the union central bank can deteriorate if the difference between countries growth and in general it tends to overshoot the inflation target. When the two countries differ in productivity, the union on aggregate performs again better than the sum of the isolated countries counterparts. However, taking into account the welfare in both countries of the union, it is not always convenient to form the union. The performance of the union is strongly affected by the level of labor market frictions and the size of the productivity gap among countries. The real sovereign debt per capita in the union increases with low mobility frictions and high productivity gap. Stronger fiscal integration (fiscal transfers) reduces inequality between countries, allowing the low productivity country and, hence, the total union to sustain even with a higher mobility of workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Marko Petrovic & Bulent Ozel & Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2017. "Eurace Open: An agent-based multi-country model," Working Papers 2017/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2017/09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.doctreballeco.uji.es/wpficheros/Petrovic_et_al_09_2017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    2. Manuel Wäckerle & Bernhard Rengs & Wolfgang Radax, 2014. "An Agent-Based Model of Institutional Life-Cycles," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    4. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    6. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    7. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2014. "The Short- and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," LEM Papers Series 2014/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chiarella, Carl & Iori, Giulia, 2009. "The impact of heterogeneous trading rules on the limit order book and order flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-537.
    10. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    11. Alan Kirman, 2011. "Learning in Agent-based Models," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 20-27.
    12. Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2000. "Productivity Convergence in Europe," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 297-320, Summer.
    13. Martin Baldwin-Edwards, 1997. "The Emerging European Immigration Regime: Some Reflections on Implications for Southern Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 497-519, December.
    14. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2013. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1598-1625.
    15. Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2015. "Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 29-61.
    16. Silvano Cincotti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio, 2012. "Macroprudential Policies in an Agent-Based Artificial Economy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 205-234.
    17. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    18. David Sondermann, 2014. "Productivity in the euro area: any evidence of convergence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 999-1027, November.
    19. Gerd Gigerenzer & Reinhard Selten (ed.), 2002. "Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262571641.
    20. Klimek, Peter & Poledna, Sebastian & Doyne Farmer, J. & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-154.
    21. Greenwood, Michael J. & Hunt, Gary L. & Kohli, Ulrich, 1997. "The factor-market consequences of unskilled immigration to the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, March.
    22. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    23. Marco Licalzi & Paolo Pellizzari, 2003. "Fundamentalists clashing over the book: a study of order-driven stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 470-480.
    24. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
    25. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2008. "Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK," IAB Discussion Paper 200803, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    26. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    27. Pia Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2003. "Do amnesty programs reduce undocumented immigration? Evidence from Irca," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(3), pages 437-450, August.
    28. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    29. Dominique Gross, 2002. "Three million foreigners, three million unemployed? Immigration flows and the labour market in France," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(16), pages 1969-1983.
    30. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    31. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    32. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
    34. Marr, William L. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1994. "The link between immigration and unemployment in Canada," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, February.
    35. Gabbi, Giampaolo & Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Porter, James, 2015. "Financial regulations and bank credit to the real economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-143.
    36. Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
    37. Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori, 2002. "A simulation analysis of the microstructure of double auction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 346-353.
    38. Alexander H. Sarris & Stavros Zografakis, 1999. "A computable general equilibrium assessment of the impact of illegal immigration on the Greek economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 155-182.
    39. Dawid, H. & Harting, P. & Neugart, M., 2014. "Economic convergence: Policy implications from a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-80.
    40. Simon, Herbert A, 1979. "Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 493-513, September.
    41. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    42. Assenza, Tiziana & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Grazzini, Jakob, 2015. "Emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 5-28.
    43. Herbert Dawid & Michael Neugart, 2011. "Agent-based Models for Economic Policy Design," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 44-50.
    44. Caiani, Alessandro & Godin, Antoine & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Gallegati, Mauro & Kinsella, Stephen & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 375-408.
    45. Blake LeBaron & Ryuichi Yamamoto, 2008. "The Impact of Imitation on Long Memory in an Order-Driven Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 504-517.
    46. G. Tedeschi & G. Iori & M. Gallegati, 2009. "The role of communication and imitation in limit order markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 489-497, October.
    47. de Grauwe, Paul & Gerba, Eddie, 2015. "Stock market cycles and supply side dynamics," FinMaP-Working Papers 45, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    48. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
    49. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, December.
    50. Paul De Grauwe & Eddie Gerba, 2015. "Stock Market Cycles and Supply Side Dynamics: Two Worlds, One Vision?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5573, CESifo Group Munich.
    51. Marko Petrovic & Andrea Teglio & Simone Alfarano, 2016. "The role of bank credit allocation: Evidence from the Spanish economy," Working Papers 2016/17, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    52. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    53. Paul De Grauwe, 2003. "The Euro at Stake? The Monetary Union in an Enlarged Europe," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 49(1), pages 103-121.
    54. Liesbet Okkerse, 2008. "How To Measure Labour Market Effects Of Immigration: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 1-30, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Napoletano, 2017. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-40, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based multi-country model; migration; integration; monetary union; monetary policy; fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2017/09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Aurora Garcia Gallego). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ueujies.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.