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Rational heuristics? Expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dosi

    (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Andrea Roventini

    (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa], OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Joseph Stiglitz

    (Columbia University [New York])

  • Tania Treibich

    (Maastricht University [Maastricht], SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa], OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information and coordination hurdles. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learning rules. In fact, more sophisticated, e.g. recursive least squares (RLS) expectations produce less accurate individual forecasts and also considerably worsen the performance of the economy. Finally, we experiment with agents that adjust simply to technological shocks, and we show that individual and aggregate performances dramatically degrade. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics are not a second-best option: rather they are "rational" in macroeconomic environments with heterogeneous, interacting agents and changing "fundamentals".
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Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational heuristics? Expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-03046977, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:halshs-03046977
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12897
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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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