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The durations of recession and prosperity: does their distribution follow a power or an exponential law?

  • Marcel Ausloos
  • Janusz Miskiewicz
  • Michele Sanglier

Following findings by Ormerod and Mounfield, Wright rises the problem whether a power or an exponential law describes the distribution of occurrences of economic recession periods. In order to clarify the controversy a different set of GDP data is hereby examined. The conclusion about a power law distribution of recession periods seems better though the matter is not entirely settled. The case of prosperity duration is also studied and is found to follow a power law. Universal but also non universal features between recession and prosperity cases are emphasized. Considering that the economy is basically a bistable (recession/prosperity) system we may derive a characteristic (de)stabilisation time.

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Paper provided by in its series Papers with number cond-mat/0403143.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Publication status: Published in Physica A 339 (2004) 548-558
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0403143
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