IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/cond-mat-0403143.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The durations of recession and prosperity: does their distribution follow a power or an exponential law?

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Ausloos
  • Janusz Miskiewicz
  • Michele Sanglier

Abstract

Following findings by Ormerod and Mounfield, Wright rises the problem whether a power or an exponential law describes the distribution of occurrences of economic recession periods. In order to clarify the controversy a different set of GDP data is hereby examined. The conclusion about a power law distribution of recession periods seems better though the matter is not entirely settled. The case of prosperity duration is also studied and is found to follow a power law. Universal but also non universal features between recession and prosperity cases are emphasized. Considering that the economy is basically a bistable (recession/prosperity) system we may derive a characteristic (de)stabilisation time.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Ausloos & Janusz Miskiewicz & Michele Sanglier, 2004. "The durations of recession and prosperity: does their distribution follow a power or an exponential law?," Papers cond-mat/0403143, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0403143
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403143
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miśkiewicz, J. & Ausloos, M., 2004. "A logistic map approach to economic cycles. (I). The best adapted companies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 206-214.
    2. Mizuno, T. & Takayasu, M. & Takayasu, H., 2002. "The mechanism of double-exponential growth in hyper-inflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 411-419.
    3. Ausloos, Marcel & Clippe, Paulette & Pȩkalski, Andrzej, 2003. "Simple model for the dynamics of correlations in the evolution of economic entities under varying economic conditions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 330-337.
    4. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2001. "Power law distribution of the duration and magnitude of recessions in capitalist economies: breakdown of scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 573-582.
    5. Aoki, Masanao, 1998. "Simple Model Of Asymmetrical Business Cycles: Interactive Dynamics Of A Large Number Of Agents With Discrete Choices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 427-442, December.
    6. Michal Kalecki, 1937. "A Theory of the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 77-97.
    7. Ausloos, M & Clippe, P & Pekalski, A, 2004. "Model of macroeconomic evolution in stable regionally dependent economic fields," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 269-287.
    8. Ausloos, Marcel & Clippe, Paulette & Pȩkalski, Andrzej, 2004. "Evolution of economic entities under heterogeneous political/environmental conditions within a Bak–Sneppen-like dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 394-402.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcel Ausloos, 2014. "A biased view of a few possible components when reflecting on the present decade financial and economic crisis," Papers 1412.0127, arXiv.org.
    2. Miśkiewicz, Janusz & Ausloos, M., 2007. "Delayed information flow effect in economy systems. An ACP model study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 179-186.
    3. Redelico, Francisco O. & Proto, Araceli N. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2008. "Power law for the duration of recession and prosperity in Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6330-6336.
    4. Marcel Ausloos & Herbert Dawid & Ugo Merlone, 2015. "Spatial Interactions in Agent-Based Modeling," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Pasquale Commendatore & Saime Kayam & Ingrid Kubin (ed.), Complexity and Geographical Economics, edition 127, pages 353-377, Springer.
    5. Ausloos, Marcel & Clippe, Paulette & Miśkiewicz, Janusz & Pe¸kalski, Andrzej, 2004. "A (reactive) lattice-gas approach to economic cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 1-7.
    6. Ausloos, M & Clippe, P & Pekalski, A, 2004. "Model of macroeconomic evolution in stable regionally dependent economic fields," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 269-287.
    7. Miśkiewicz, Janusz, 2012. "Economy with the time delay of information flow—The stock market case," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1388-1394.
    8. Marcel Ausloos, 2013. "Econophysics: Comments on a Few Applications, Successes, Methods and Models," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 2(2), pages 101-115, July.
    9. Miśkiewicz, J. & Ausloos, M., 2004. "A logistic map approach to economic cycles. (I). The best adapted companies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 206-214.
    10. V. Ragupathy & Stefano Zambelli & K. Vela Velupillai, 2013. "A Non-linear Model of the Trade Cycle: Mathematical Reflections on Hugh Hudson's Classic," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 115-125, June.
    11. Tadas Telksnys & Zenonas Navickas & Martynas Vaidelys & Minvydas Ragulskis, 2016. "The Order Of A 2-Sequence And The Complexity Of Digital Images," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04n05), pages 1-25, June.
    12. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Arnim, Rudiger von, 2021. "Endogenous fluctuations in demand and distribution: An empirical investigation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 204-220.
    13. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Dumas, Patrice, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 777-786, January.
    14. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos, 2004. "Finite-time singularities in the dynamics of Mexican financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 331(1), pages 253-268.
    15. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael, 2008. "Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 582-592, December.
    16. Aoki, Masanao & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 2006. "Uncertainty, policy ineffectiveness, and long stagnation of the macroeconomy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 261-272, August.
    17. Robert Guttmann, 2015. "The heterodox notion of structural crisis," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 194-212, April.
    18. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, February.
    19. Wright, Ian, 2009. "Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-27.
    20. Chu, Zhuang & Yang, Biao & Ha, Chang Yong & Ahn, Kwangwon, 2018. "Modeling GDP fluctuations with agent-based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 572-581.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0403143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.