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Are Business Cycles All Alike? A Bandpass Filter Analysis of Italian and US Cycles

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  • Mauro Napoletano
  • Andrea Roventini
  • Sandro Sapio

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the bandpass filter to the main Italian and US macroeconomic variables, we estimate cross-correlations with respect to a benchmark indicator of the business cycle, and we compare results with previous empirical analyses. The aim is to investigate on the existence of specific patterns and more general regularities, in order to provide further insights as to what facts macroeconomic theories are supposed to predict and explain, and new hints at the underlying generating mechanisms. Our results underline the existence of significant specificities of the Italian business cycle with respect to the US. Certain macroeconomic relations - such as those between consumption, investments, exports, stock market variables, and the real GDP - do not robustly hold. This is a clear signal that which variables prompt and which respond to business cycles depends on country- specific characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Sandro Sapio, 2004. "Are Business Cycles All Alike? A Bandpass Filter Analysis of Italian and US Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2004/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2004/25
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    2. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    3. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    4. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2013. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1598-1625.
    5. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Economic policies with endogenous innovation and Keynesian demand management," Chapters, in: Robert M. Solow & Jean-Philippe Touffut (ed.),What’s Right with Macroeconomics?, chapter 5, pages 110-148, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati, 2004. "Weird Ties? : Growth, Cycles and Firms Dynamics in an Agent Based-Model with Financial Market Imperfections," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 288, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Lucrezia Fanti, 0. "‘Kaldor Facts’ and the decline of Wage Share: An agent based-stock flow consistent model of induced technical change along Classical and Keynesian lines," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-37.
    8. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Eliana Lauretta & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2020. "Systemic financial risk indicators and securitised assets: an agent-based framework," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 9-47, January.
    9. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And Then He Wasn't a She: Climate Change and Green Transitions in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model," LEM Papers Series 2018/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    11. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    12. Dario Guarascio & Mario Pianta & Matteo Lucchese & Francesco Bogliacino, 2015. "Business cycles, technology and exports," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(2), pages 167-200, August.
    13. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Tania Treibich, 2014. "The Short-and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," Sciences Po publications 22, Sciences Po.
    14. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2018. "Securitization and business cycle: an agent-based perspective," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1091-1121.
    15. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    16. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    17. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Agent-Based Macroeconomics and Classical Political Economy: Some Italian Roots," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 261-283, November.
    18. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    19. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2005. "Animal Spirits, Lumpy Investment, and Endogenous Business Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2005/04, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Teglio, Andrea & Mazzocchetti, Andrea & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2019. "Budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times: Policy advices from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 59-83.
    21. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "The microfoundations of business cycles: an evolutionary, multi-agent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 413-432, August.
    22. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    23. Andrew G. Haldane & Arthur E. Turrell, 2019. "Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-66, March.
    24. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "An Evolutionary Model of Endogenous Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 3-34, February.

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    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Bandpass Filter; Cross Correlations; Italian Economy; Macroeconomics.;

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