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Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy

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  • Ghate, Chetan
  • Pandey, Radhika
  • Patnaik, Ila

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive set of stylized facts for business cycles in India from 1950 to 2010. We show that most macroeconomic variables are less volatile in the post reform period, even though the volatility of macroeconomic variables is still high and similar to other emerging market economies. Consistent with other emerging market economies, relative consumption volatility has gone up in the post reform period. In terms of co-movement and persistence however, India looks similar to advanced economies, and less like other emerging market economies. We report evidence that these changes are driven primarily by structural changes caused by market oriented reforms, and not by “good luck.”

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  • Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:157-172
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2012.08.006
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    2. Vaz, Eric, 2013. "The Spatial Business Landscape of India," Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 1(4), pages 241-253.
    3. De, Supriyo, 2014. "Intangible capital and growth in the ‘new economy’: Implications of a multi-sector endogenous growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 25-42.
    4. Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Tarafdar, Suchismita, 2016. "Fiscal policy in an emerging market business cycle model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 52-77.
    5. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2016. "Where is India's Growth Headed?," Working Papers 16/159, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Ila Patnaik, 2016. "Where is India’s Growth Headed?," Working Papers id:8436, eSocialSciences.
    7. repec:ris:cieodp:2013_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gupta,Poonam - DECOS, 2016. "Capital flows and central banking : the Indian experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7569, The World Bank.
    9. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2013. "Emerging economy business cycles: Financial integration and terms of trade shocks," Working Papers 13/120, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. Ila Patnaik & Shalini Mittal & Radhika Pandey, 2019. "Examining the Trade-Off Between Price and Financial Stability in India," Working Papers id:12979, eSocialSciences.
    11. Chakrabarti, Anindya S. & Mishra, Abinash & Mohaghegh, Mohsen, 2021. "Targeted interventions: Consumption dynamics and distributional effects," IIMA Working Papers WP 2021-09-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    12. Nomoto, Takaaki, 2016. "Rainfall Variability and Macroeconomic Performance:A Case Study of India, 1952–2013," MPRA Paper 71976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2019. "Business Cycle Measurement in India," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 121-152, Springer.
    14. Erumban, Abdul Azeez & Das, Deb Kusum & Aggarwal, Suresh & Das, Pilu Chandra, 2019. "Structural change and economic growth in India," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 186-202.
    15. Niaz Ali & Muhammad Tariq & Asia Baig, 2017. "A Statistical Investigation of Business Cycles Characteristics in Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 2(1), pages 73-84, December.
    16. Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Saurabh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan, 2021. "In quest for policy 'silver bullets' towards triggering a v-shaped recovery," MPRA Paper 110905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Samaresh Bardhan & Vivekananda Mukherjee, 2016. "Bank-specific determinants of nonperforming assets of Indian banks," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 483-498, July.
    18. Das, Sudipta, 2015. "Empirical evidence of conditional asset pricing in the Indian stock market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 225-239.
    19. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging market business cycle models; Structural change; India's economic reforms; Good luck hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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